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Pakistani stocks are rising, and the KSE-100 breaks the 69,000 barrier.

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The benchmark KSE-100 Index increased 1.76 percent on Monday, passing beyond the 69,000 barrier for the first time in its history. This maintained Pakistani stock market’s record-breaking run, as investors remained upbeat about potential rate cuts by the central bank.

The most recent advances also follow Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s iftar dinner given by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Makkah, at a time when Riyadh is anticipated to announce an approximately $1 billion investment in Reko Diq, one of the world’s greatest reserves of copper and gold.

After reaching a high of 69,720.03, the KSE-100 Index concluded at 69,619.98 with a net gain of 1,203.20 points by the time trading was closed for the day. This was due to international investors, both individual and institutional, making purchases.

The meeting between Shehbaz and the Saudi crown prince, also referred to as MBS, may open doors for investment in a variety of industries, including mining, energy, and agriculture.

With record-high energy and interest rates driving up the cost of conducting business to an unaffordable level, investors are clamoring for foreign investment to prop up the economy.

Any improvement in this area would not only contribute to the rupee’s appreciation but also increase the value of cheap equities due to the anticipated purchasing frenzy, as buyers will not pass up the chance to purchase at the reduced prices.

However, there is a big question mark over the heightened expectations that the State Bank of Pakistan will begin reducing interest rates following the consumer price index (CPI) showing a steady fall in inflation over the past three months, particularly the greater than anticipated decline in March.

The reason is that, given Islamabad’s desperation to secure another package from the Washington-based lender, there is an impending hike in gasoline costs in addition to power and gas charges. This move will further sustain the inflationary pressure under the IMF criteria.

Meanwhile, the most recent US data has reduced expectations for potential rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, which is driving up the price of gold as speculative purchasing occurs.

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A stock market boom is questioned by an economist who points to few factors.

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According to Muzzammil Aslam, an economic expert, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has a debt of Rs725 billion.

Regarding financial advancements, he said that a particular fund has been established to handle economic difficulties, with Rs30 billion being provided to it.

Aslam observed that only five companies were mostly responsible for the recent spike on the Pakistan Stock Exchange.

“The boost is due to two fertilizer companies, two petroleum firms, and one bank,” he stated.

He went on to say that just five businesses helped the stock market rise by 35,000 points, underscoring their substantial influence on the performance of the market as a whole.

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Pakistan’s per capita GDP is on a positive growth track.

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With a per capita GDP of $1,680 in FY2024 and forecasts for FY2025 indicating further rise to $2,405, Pakistan has made notable strides in its economic recovery and perseverance in the face of adversity.

With a per capita GDP of $2,996, Islamabad outperformed a number of regional standards, including the $2,106 national average for India.

Punjab also demonstrated improvement, as evidenced by its per capita income of $1,713.60, which was 2% more than the national average and added to the country’s improving economic situation.

With a $1,748 per capita income, Sindh has also been a good performer. In the meantime, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Balochistan reported per capita incomes of $1,388.41 and $1,106, respectively, indicating consistent economic growth in these regions.

Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir also recorded noteworthy per capita incomes of $1,550 and $1,730, reflecting the government’s focus on balanced regional development.

India’s geographical differences, on the other hand, showed notable inequality. While southern states reported a per capita income of $3,421, northern regions, particularly those under the influence of Hindutva politics, reported much lower figures, with only $813.

India also grapples with severe poverty, with 234 million people living below the poverty line, according to the UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. According to the International Labour Organization, youth unemployment in India has also increased to concerning proportions, rising from 35.2% to 65.7%.

Despite facing external pressures, Pakistan’s economy has shown resilience, enduring a $150 billion loss over two decades due to foreign-sponsored terrorism, compounded by the burden of hosting 4 to 5 million Afghan refugees. However, Pakistan’s dedication to stability and long-term development is still evident.

Pakistan’s focus on sustainable and inclusive growth presents a clear roadmap for transforming current challenges into future opportunities, paving the way for long-term prosperity.

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SBP Governor Jameel predicts that Pakistan’s economy would rise by more than 3% in FY24–25.

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In the current fiscal year, Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to reach 3%, and forecasts for the upcoming year indicate that it will continue to accelerate, according to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad.

The chairman of the central bank emphasized the significance of steady and progressive growth in order to prevent future balance of payments problems during a press conference on Thursday.

He pointed out that although Pakistan’s economy has grown by an average of 3.5% over the past ten years, the nation occasionally sees notable growth spikes followed by difficulties in the years that follow.

He stated that “the path to stable growth lies in gradual and consistent development,” emphasizing that the SBP will concentrate on controlling inflation and obstacles related to the foreign account.

The governor of the SBP also disclosed the SBP’s inflation target, which is set at 5 to 7 percent for the current fiscal year. Other sectors would profit as well, he said, if economic indicators improve and inflation stays under control.

“We hope that Pakistan’s current account will remain in surplus through December,” he said.

Remittances and the stabilization of foreign debt

Another update from the governor was that Pakistan’s foreign debt is still manageable. Currently, the nation owes $100.8 billion in foreign debt.

Despite the $500 million increase in this amount as a result of debt revaluation, Ahmad guaranteed that the overall debt situation has much improved since 2022.

Remittances have been leveling off and are projected to reach $35 billion by the end of this fiscal year, according to Mr. Jameel, who spoke about foreign exchange inflows. Additionally, exports are improving, but he urged greater efforts to boost export volumes, which are crucial for lowering dependency on remittances.

Prioritize SMEs and export growth.

“Achieving sustainable economic growth will depend on increasing exports and reducing dependency on remittances,” Jameel Ahmad stated.

Additionally, the SBP governor emphasized that foreign exchange reserves are being used efficiently to satisfy the needs of international businesses and investors. Pakistan gave $330 million in dividends and earnings to foreign investors in 2023, and by 2024, that amount had increased to $2.2 billion.

He also emphasized the government’s significant emphasis on growing the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) sector, which he thinks would be essential to economic growth. SME loans up to Rs 10 million can now be obtained under the new regulations without collateral.

Additionally, the government has increased the loan target for SMEs from Rs 543 billion to Rs 1,100 billion, and banks have been directed to lend an additional Rs 100 billion to SMEs each year.

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