A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.
Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.
With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.
The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.
Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.
It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.
The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.
According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.