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Contraction in LSM output dims prospects of growth this fiscal year

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  • PBS data shows LSM output drops by 25% in March.
  • Big industries output witnessed highest-ever decline since COVID-19.
  • Steep contraction will increase pace of inflation, put jobs at risk.

ISLAMABAD: A steep contraction in output of large-scale manufacturing (LSM) in March has faded the prospects of achieving a positive growth figure, The News reported Tuesday. 

The delay in the revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme has choked the economy consequently the LSM contracted massively; as a result, it can halt economic activities, boost already-high inflation and increase unemployment.

Although the Ministry of Finance has projected a provisional GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of positive 0.8% in its revised estimates, the latest figures of LSM for March 2023 demonstrate that it remained negative by 25%, compared to the corresponding month of the last year.

The big industries’ output witnessed the highest-ever decline since COVID-19 pandemic. In the first nine months (July-March) of the outgoing fiscal year, the LSM witnessed a contraction of 8.1%.

“Keeping in view the performance of the industrial and agriculture sector, the provisional growth figure may turn into negative up to -1%. Earlier, the efforts were underway for turning the provisional figure into positive ranging from 0 to 0.5%,” sources confirmed to The News.

The National Accounts Committee (NAC) is scheduled to hold its meeting within the ongoing week to calculate the provisional growth figures for the outgoing financial year 2022-23.

Dr Khaqan Najeeb, former finance ministry adviser, said the industrial sector had been unable to secure letters of credit due to the country being in a dollar liquidity crunch. 

The lack of access to imports has hurt industrial production as evident in the fall of LSMI output by 8.11% in the first nine months (July-March) of 2022-23.

“The revival of the IMF programme would have ensured a flow of dollars from multilaterals, bilateral and commercial monies to ease the imports and unclog the economic activity,” he said.

“It is likely that growth would be muted in the outgoing fiscal year with a contraction in the manufacturing and agriculture sector. This would create further unemployment and rise inflation due to shortfall in supplies,” he concluded.

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The PSX has resumed operations, achieving a gain of 970 points.

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The optimistic close at the PSX was propelled by rumors preceding the International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board meeting on September 25, at which the approval of a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is expected, stated Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Commodities.

Strong economic indicators, such as increasing remittances, escalating exports, and a declining trade deficit, further bolstered investor confidence. Furthermore, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) commitment to a $2 billion yearly concessional loan until 2027, along with a robust rupee, significantly contributed to the market’s favorable performance, he stated.

Widespread purchasing at the PSX was noted among blue-chip stocks, with major players like Mari Petroleum (MARI), Engro Fertilizers (EFERT), United Bank Limited (UBL), Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL), and Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) recording substantial increases. According to Topline Securities, these stocks collectively resulted in a significant 682-point increase in the index.

Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) announced its fiscal year 2024 results, revealing a profits per share (EPS) of Rs 22.79 and a cash dividend of Rs 10 per share. This announcement contributed to the favorable sentiment in the market.

Trading volume surpassed 400.2 million shares, resulting in a total turnover of Rs15.9 billion. Worldcall Telecom Limited (WTL) topped the volume chart, transacting more than 32.2 million shares.

The Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) demonstrated a year-on-year (YoY) gain of 2.4% in July 2024. This expansion was propelled by multiple critical areas.

Tobacco experienced a significant increase of 90.2%, establishing it as the foremost contributor to the LSMI growth. Conversely, the automotive sector witnessed a substantial increase of 72.0%, indicating robust demand and output.

The transport equipment category experienced an 11.7% increase, signifying robust growth in the manufacturing of transport-related machinery and equipment. The other manufacturing sector experienced a gain of 10.7%, positively impacting the overall LSMI.

Nevertheless, not all industries exhibited strong performance. The leading decliner was the fabricated metal sector, which experienced an 18.4% decrease, signifying a contraction in metal product manufacturing. The electrical equipment industry experienced a substantial decline of 19.4%, indicative of reduced output levels.

In July 2024, the LSMI decreased by 2.1% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. This fall signifies a minor contraction in manufacturing operations relative to the preceding month, although the favorable year-on-year growth.

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As of August 2024, Pakistan’s current account is in surplus.

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Pakistan’s current account deficit was $161 million as of August 2023, according to figures from the central bank.

The current account deficit for the months of July and August of this year was $171 million, compared to $939 million for the same time in the previous fiscal year.

According to experts, the 40% rise in remittances is the primary cause of the current account surplus.

August saw US$ 2.9 billion in offshore remittances to Pakistan, according to experts.

Comparing July of this year to July of last year, total exports increased by 11.3% YoY to $3.01 billion. In contrast to the $3.08 billion in exports the month before, it decreased by 2.2%.

Compared to the $4.99 billion in imports recorded in July of previous year, total imports increased 12.2% YoY to $5.6 billion. Imports decreased by 1.3% over the previous month.

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Islamic Sukuk Bonds: Government Is Expected To Begin Bond Auction Next Week

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There is now more positive economic news for the people of Pakistan. The government is anticipated to begin the Sukuk Islamic Bond auction next week, after the central bank’s announcement of a large drop in the policy rate.

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