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11-month economic slump ends, as exports increase in Sept

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  • 4.2% increase was recorded in Sept this year.
  • In Sept last year, exports stood at $2.437 billion.
  • Imports fell sharply by 25.3% to $3.95 billion.

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported an increase in exports by 1.15% to $2.465 billion in September 2023, for the first time in 11 months, overturning a lengthy slump attributed to the country’s dwindling economy.

According to PBS data reported by The News, the exports stood at $2.437 billion in the same month last year. The growth, it added, was modest but significant, as it happened in the wake of 11 consecutive months of year-on-year reductions ranging from 3.25% to 26.2%.

As the exports rose by 4.2% over those in August 2023 which stood at $2.366 billion, the turnaround was apparent on a monthly basis, the PBS mentioned in its report.

The shift was seen last month in August when the pace of decline slowed to single-digit from earlier sharp declines seen since October last year. Notably, year-on-year in October 2022, exports reduced by 3.25%, November 17.6%, December 16.3%, January 14.15%, February 22.7%, March 14.6%, April 26.2%, May 16.2%, June 19.1%, July 8.09%, August 4.7%, but now in September it increased by 1.15%.

The imports fell sharply by 25.3% to $3.95 billion in September 2023 from a year ago, mainly due to lower oil prices, reduced demand for machinery and raw materials, and tight import controls by the government to curb the trade deficit.

On a monthly basis, imports dropped by 12.7% from $4.5 billion in August 2023. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed by 47.9% to $1.49 billion in September 2023 from $2.86 billion in September 2022. In August 2023, the deficit was $2.16 billion.

In the first quarter of the current fiscal year (July-September 2023-24), exports fell by 3.8% to $6.9 billion, while its imports declined by 25.4% to $12.2 billion, compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year. The trade deficit shrank by 42.15% to $5.29 billion in the first quarter of FY24 from $9.16 billion in the first quarter of FY23.

In FY23, Pakistan’s trade deficit fell by 43% to $27.55 billion from $48.35 billion in FY22, as total exports dipped by 12.7% to $27.7 billion and imports contracted by 31% to $55.3 billion.

The data also showed that the trade deficit in services widened by 174% to $463 million in July-August 2023-24 from $169 million in July-August 2022-23 due to higher demand for foreign services as the economy reopened.

From July to August 2023-24, Pakistan spent $1.6 billion on the services it hired from abroad and offered its services of $1.14 billion. Similarly, in the same period last year, exports were $1.1 billion and imports of $1.28 billion. During these two months, exports increased by 2% while imports up by 24.7%. In August, services exports were valued at $600 million, while imports amounted to $789 million, resulting in a deficit of $189 million.

In July 2023, exports were at $535 million, imports at $809 million, and the deficit at $274 million. During the month under review, services exports increased by 12.14%, and imports decreased by 2.45% compared to the previous month. Comparing August 2023’services trade performance to the same month of the previous year, exports were up by 2.34%, and imports also increased by 9.1%.

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Report: Solar is expected to set new records this year.

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In 2023, there was an expected 87% increase in growth. This year’s increase is 29% over the previous one, according to the research.

The cheapest source of electricity globally is solar power, and as such, it is expanding quicker than many anticipated, according to Euan Graham, an Ember electricity data analyst.

Ember estimates demonstrate the rapid growth of solar energy: in 2024 alone, new solar capacity will surpass the 540 GW of additional coal power added globally since 2010.

Expected to add 334 GW, or 56 percent of the global total in 2024, China continues to lead the globe in this industry.

According to the survey, it is followed by the US, India, Germany, and Brazil. These five nations will account for 75% of the new solar capacity in 2024.

According to the research, maintaining the sector’s growth required grid capacity and battery storage.

“Providing enough grid capacity and developing battery storage is critical for handling electricity distribution and supporting solar outside of peak sunlight hours as solar becomes more inexpensive and accessible,” the statement stated.

“Solar power might continue to surpass forecasts for the remainder of the decade if these issues are resolved and development is sustained.”

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The PSX has resumed operations, achieving a gain of 970 points.

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The optimistic close at the PSX was propelled by rumors preceding the International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board meeting on September 25, at which the approval of a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is expected, stated Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Commodities.

Strong economic indicators, such as increasing remittances, escalating exports, and a declining trade deficit, further bolstered investor confidence. Furthermore, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) commitment to a $2 billion yearly concessional loan until 2027, along with a robust rupee, significantly contributed to the market’s favorable performance, he stated.

Widespread purchasing at the PSX was noted among blue-chip stocks, with major players like Mari Petroleum (MARI), Engro Fertilizers (EFERT), United Bank Limited (UBL), Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL), and Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) recording substantial increases. According to Topline Securities, these stocks collectively resulted in a significant 682-point increase in the index.

Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) announced its fiscal year 2024 results, revealing a profits per share (EPS) of Rs 22.79 and a cash dividend of Rs 10 per share. This announcement contributed to the favorable sentiment in the market.

Trading volume surpassed 400.2 million shares, resulting in a total turnover of Rs15.9 billion. Worldcall Telecom Limited (WTL) topped the volume chart, transacting more than 32.2 million shares.

The Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) demonstrated a year-on-year (YoY) gain of 2.4% in July 2024. This expansion was propelled by multiple critical areas.

Tobacco experienced a significant increase of 90.2%, establishing it as the foremost contributor to the LSMI growth. Conversely, the automotive sector witnessed a substantial increase of 72.0%, indicating robust demand and output.

The transport equipment category experienced an 11.7% increase, signifying robust growth in the manufacturing of transport-related machinery and equipment. The other manufacturing sector experienced a gain of 10.7%, positively impacting the overall LSMI.

Nevertheless, not all industries exhibited strong performance. The leading decliner was the fabricated metal sector, which experienced an 18.4% decrease, signifying a contraction in metal product manufacturing. The electrical equipment industry experienced a substantial decline of 19.4%, indicative of reduced output levels.

In July 2024, the LSMI decreased by 2.1% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. This fall signifies a minor contraction in manufacturing operations relative to the preceding month, although the favorable year-on-year growth.

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As of August 2024, Pakistan’s current account is in surplus.

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Pakistan’s current account deficit was $161 million as of August 2023, according to figures from the central bank.

The current account deficit for the months of July and August of this year was $171 million, compared to $939 million for the same time in the previous fiscal year.

According to experts, the 40% rise in remittances is the primary cause of the current account surplus.

August saw US$ 2.9 billion in offshore remittances to Pakistan, according to experts.

Comparing July of this year to July of last year, total exports increased by 11.3% YoY to $3.01 billion. In contrast to the $3.08 billion in exports the month before, it decreased by 2.2%.

Compared to the $4.99 billion in imports recorded in July of previous year, total imports increased 12.2% YoY to $5.6 billion. Imports decreased by 1.3% over the previous month.

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