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What’s Israel-Hamas war’s impact on global economic outlook?

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After indicating increased optimism about controlling global inflation brought on by the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the start of a war in the Middle East may force central bankers to battle fresh inflationary trends and inflict a hit on economic confidence.

Israel on Sunday officially declared a state of war after a surprise attack by Hamas a day earlier, resulting in hundreds of deaths adding to the sense of global instability caused by Russian military actions almost 20 months ago.

So far, the impact of the Israel-Gaza war on global inflation remains unclear as it depends on how long the conflict lasts, how intense it becomes, and whether it spreads to other parts of the region.

“It’s too early to say what the implications may be, though oil and equity markets may see immediate fallout,” Agustin Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, said in a presentation to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

However, the war has the potential to add an unpredictable set of dynamics to a weakening global economy.

Additionally, it may also affect US markets that are still adjusting to the possibility that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates high for longer than many investors had anticipated, Reuters reported.

“Any source of economic uncertainty delays decision-making, increases risk premia, and especially given that region…there is an apprehension about where oil is going to open,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist with Northern Trust.

“The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like,” he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently.

“The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?”

That and related issues will likely vault high on the agenda of global financial leaders gathering this week in Morocco for meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank to take stock of a global economy that remains in a deep state of flux from the pandemic and rising trade tensions.

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The PSX has resumed operations, achieving a gain of 970 points.

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The optimistic close at the PSX was propelled by rumors preceding the International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board meeting on September 25, at which the approval of a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is expected, stated Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Commodities.

Strong economic indicators, such as increasing remittances, escalating exports, and a declining trade deficit, further bolstered investor confidence. Furthermore, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) commitment to a $2 billion yearly concessional loan until 2027, along with a robust rupee, significantly contributed to the market’s favorable performance, he stated.

Widespread purchasing at the PSX was noted among blue-chip stocks, with major players like Mari Petroleum (MARI), Engro Fertilizers (EFERT), United Bank Limited (UBL), Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL), and Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) recording substantial increases. According to Topline Securities, these stocks collectively resulted in a significant 682-point increase in the index.

Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) announced its fiscal year 2024 results, revealing a profits per share (EPS) of Rs 22.79 and a cash dividend of Rs 10 per share. This announcement contributed to the favorable sentiment in the market.

Trading volume surpassed 400.2 million shares, resulting in a total turnover of Rs15.9 billion. Worldcall Telecom Limited (WTL) topped the volume chart, transacting more than 32.2 million shares.

The Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) demonstrated a year-on-year (YoY) gain of 2.4% in July 2024. This expansion was propelled by multiple critical areas.

Tobacco experienced a significant increase of 90.2%, establishing it as the foremost contributor to the LSMI growth. Conversely, the automotive sector witnessed a substantial increase of 72.0%, indicating robust demand and output.

The transport equipment category experienced an 11.7% increase, signifying robust growth in the manufacturing of transport-related machinery and equipment. The other manufacturing sector experienced a gain of 10.7%, positively impacting the overall LSMI.

Nevertheless, not all industries exhibited strong performance. The leading decliner was the fabricated metal sector, which experienced an 18.4% decrease, signifying a contraction in metal product manufacturing. The electrical equipment industry experienced a substantial decline of 19.4%, indicative of reduced output levels.

In July 2024, the LSMI decreased by 2.1% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. This fall signifies a minor contraction in manufacturing operations relative to the preceding month, although the favorable year-on-year growth.

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As of August 2024, Pakistan’s current account is in surplus.

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Pakistan’s current account deficit was $161 million as of August 2023, according to figures from the central bank.

The current account deficit for the months of July and August of this year was $171 million, compared to $939 million for the same time in the previous fiscal year.

According to experts, the 40% rise in remittances is the primary cause of the current account surplus.

August saw US$ 2.9 billion in offshore remittances to Pakistan, according to experts.

Comparing July of this year to July of last year, total exports increased by 11.3% YoY to $3.01 billion. In contrast to the $3.08 billion in exports the month before, it decreased by 2.2%.

Compared to the $4.99 billion in imports recorded in July of previous year, total imports increased 12.2% YoY to $5.6 billion. Imports decreased by 1.3% over the previous month.

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Islamic Sukuk Bonds: Government Is Expected To Begin Bond Auction Next Week

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There is now more positive economic news for the people of Pakistan. The government is anticipated to begin the Sukuk Islamic Bond auction next week, after the central bank’s announcement of a large drop in the policy rate.

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