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Analysts predict Moderna to meet COVID-19 forecast for 2023

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Moderna is expected to achieve the lower end of its sales target for this year as it only needs to cater to a small section of the private market with its COVID-19 vaccine to attain that goal, as per the industry experts. 

According to four analysts who spoke with Reuters, it is possible for Moderna to achieve $2 billion in sales from the private market in 2023 if about 20 million people are vaccinated with its updated COVID-19 vaccine.

The company has said it expects total US COVID-19 vaccine demand to be as much as 100 million doses in the fall season.

Moderna predicts $6-8 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2023, with $2-4 billion coming from the commercial market. Pfizer’s full-year outlook for COVID-19 vaccine sales was lowered by about $2 billion due to lower-than-expected vaccination rates.

Moderna’s shares have fallen by some 22% since its larger rival’s warning.

“It is unlikely Moderna will have a negative fall (in its sales outlook) like Pfizer because they started off much more conservative,” said Oppenheimer & Co analyst Hartaj Singh.

Michael Yee, an analyst from Jefferies, said that while the rollout of the new shots was initially slow, it seems to be picking up, citing recent data. Yee expects most of the demand to come from people aged 65 and over.

Moderna reports third-quarter results on Thursday, two days after Pfizer posted its first quarterly loss since 2019 due to a large charge to account for the US government returning millions of doses of its COVID-19 antiviral treatment Paxlovid, as well as an inventory of its COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty.

Moderna, a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company, has seen its research and development (R&D) costs increase by 62% to $1.1 billion in Q2 2021, despite the COVID-19 vaccine being its only marketed product, as it aims to introduce other products.

The company’s RSV vaccine, which it aims to launch in the US in 2024, was found to be 82.4% effective in older adults with three or more symptoms in a late-stage trial. It would compete with recently approved vaccines from Pfizer and GSK.

Data from a late-stage study of Moderna’s flu vaccine with an updated formulation released in September showed it generated a stronger immune response against all four A and B strains of the influenza virus compared to traditional flu shots.

Moderna’s broader mRNA-based respiratory pipeline, which includes RSV and flu vaccines, is expected to reach $10 billion to $12 billion in sales, which will reduce expenses and bring R&D stability by 2025, Yee said.

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SFD and Pakistan Sign Two Deals Totaling $1.61BLN

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Two agreements totaling $1.61 billion have been inked by Pakistan and the Saudi Fund for Development to improve their bilateral economic cooperation.

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Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign an MOU to strengthen their auditing industry collaboration.

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A spokesperson for the office of the Auditor-General of Pakistan (AGP) announced on Monday that the two countries have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to strengthen cooperation in public sector auditing through improved cooperation between audit institutions of both countries, as well as training programs and the exchange of trainers.

This comes as a group from Saudi Arabia’s General Court of Audit (GCA), headed by GCA President Dr. Hussam bin Abdulmohsen Alangari, arrived in Pakistan on Sunday for a four-day visit.

The agreement was signed during AGP Muhammad Ajmal Gondal’s meeting with the Saudi delegates, aiming to strengthen audit cooperation, enhance knowledge-sharing, and improve governance, transparency and accountability in government spending.

Public relations officer Muhammad Raza Irfan of the AGP’s office told Arab News that the deal will further advance bilateral collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in addition to enhancing professional ties between the two nations’ auditing institutions.

In a statement released from his office, AGP Gondal was cited as saying, “This collaboration marks a significant step toward fostering international cooperation in auditing.”

“The exchange of ideas and methodologies will undoubtedly strengthen our capacity to meet emerging challenges and set new benchmarks for public accountability.”

Discussions at Monday’s meeting focused on fostering closer ties between the Supreme Audit Institutions (SAIs) of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, sharing innovative audit methodologies, and planning collaborative initiatives for the future, according to the AGP office.

The two parties decided to increase their knowledge of theme, environmental, and impact audits as well as to exchange best practices in audit standards, performance audits, and citizen participation audits.

The statement added, “It also agreed to exchange trainers, address new auditing challenges, plan cooperative audits, including a performance audit on the oil and gas sector in 2025, and work together on training programs.”

Both sides reaffirmed their shared commitment to promoting transparency, accountability and excellence in public sector auditing.

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The government chooses to continue the PIA privatization process.

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The Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) privatization process will be restarted by the federal government, and expressions of interest would be requested within the month. Officials stated that the Prime Minister’s Committee on Privatization will convene to make the final decision.

Usman Bajwa, the secretary of the Privatization Commission, gave a briefing on the updated procedure to the National Assembly Standing Committee on Privatization. Additionally, he disclosed that airlines other than PIA are now able to compete with regional carriers thanks to IMF-approved aircraft tax concessions.

Farooq Sattar, the chairman of the privatization committee, underlined the importance of giving PIA workers at least five years of job security. Employee protection will continue to be a top priority and will be resolved prior to bidding, the Privatization Commission promised.

PIA’s liabilities totaling Rs650 billion have already been assumed by the government, and an additional Rs45 billion in outstanding debts must be paid before the privatization process can begin. As of the now, PIA has assets around Rs155 billion and liabilities worth Rs200 billion. It will be necessary for the new buyer to expand the fleet by 15 to 20 aircraft.

Additionally, the Privatization Committee has sought a timeline for the privatization of Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and Islamabad Electric Supply Companies. Officials stated that after the appointment of a financial advisor, the privatization process for these companies will accelerate.

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