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As a stepping stone for the IMF program, the tough and unpopular budget: Abdul Rahman

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After meeting all of the criteria set out by the lender in its annual budget, Pakistan is aiming to secure a staff-level agreement on an IMF rescue of over $6 billion this month, according to Reuters, who spoke with the country’s junior finance minister.

In an effort to secure a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and prevent another economic collapse, the South Asian nation has set ambitious revenue objectives in its yearly budget, despite growing domestic unrest over new taxing policies.

Minister of State for Finance, Revenue and Power Ali Pervaiz Malik stated on Wednesday that the goal is to reach an agreement at the staff level before the IMF board takes a break, adding that they want to conclude the process within the next three to four weeks.

Regarding the package’s size, he stated, “I think it will be north of $6 billion,” though he stressed that the main focus right now was on the IMF’s accreditation.

With a fiscal deficit that dropped sharply to 5.9 percent of GDP from 7.4 percent the year before, Pakistan aimed for tax collection of 13 trillion rupees ($47 billion) for the fiscal year that started on July 1, a near-40 percent increase from the next year.

The goal of implementing a harsh and unpopular budget, according to Malik, was to pave the way for an IMF program, and the lender was pleased with the revenue measures implemented after their discussions.

Consumers hit hard by food export surge, trade imbalance in Pakistan falls 12.3 percent

“There are no major issues left to address, now that all major prior actions have been met, the budget being one of them,” added Malik.

The budget might get the go light from the IMF, but experts say it might make the public even more furious.

“Obviously they (budget reforms) are burdensome for the local economy but the IMF programme is all about stabilisation,” Malik pointed out.

Given Pakistan’s impending debt repayments and the aftermath of the unwinding of capital and import restrictions, economist Sakib Sherani of private firm Macro Economic Insights warned that the country’s currency and foreign exchange reserves would be under pressure unless the IMF and Pakistan reached a swift agreement.

“If it takes longer, then the central bank may be forced to temporarily re-instate import and capital controls,” he added. “There will be a period of uncertainty, and one casualty is likely to be the rally in equities.”

The benchmark share index of Pakistan climbed 1% during trading on Wednesday, hitting an intraday high of 80,348 points at 0640 GMT, a new record.

With persistent hope for a rescue package from the International Monetary Fund to support the faltering economy, the index has risen by about 10% since the budget was unveiled on June 12.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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