CPI inflation up 4.7% compared to fall of 1.2% in Sept 2022.
Numbers mostly in line with the market expectations.
Impact of the high-base effect to kick in down the line.
ISLAMABAD: Accelerating faster than anticipated, Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation for October 2022 surged to 26.6% year-on-year, latest data showed, chiefly fueled by high-priced food and a hawkish monetary outlook.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), consumer prices rose 4.7% compared to a fall of 1.2% in September 2022 month-on-month.
The inflation is not far from a 47-year high.
The inflation crossed 20% in June 2022, topping the 47-year high of 27.3% in August 2022 year-on-year.
PBS in a statement said the rise in consumer prices in October from last month was boosted mainly by electricity and food prices, while the higher CPI from October last year was caused by rising costs of food and fuel.
The numbers are in line with the market expectations.
The market was mostly bracing for the headline inflation to increase by 4% month-on-month.
Moreover, food inflation swelled 36.2% year-on-year, while transport prices sped up 53.4%, clothing and footwear prices rose 18.3% and housing, water and electricity costs rose 11.9%.
Brokerage Ismail Iqbal Securities had projected the inflation to clock in at 25.7% as against 23.2% in September. “Overall, we expect FY23 average inflation at 22%. The sequential increase will be led by normalisation of electricity tariff, quarterly house rent revision, and higher perishable food prices,” the brokerage said in a report.
“The impact would be diluted to some extent by a reduction in petroleum prices,” it added.
However, analysts see the impact of the high-base effect in December, while the announcement of a number of subsidies on several items amid cooling international commodity markets might reduce inflation pressure to around 22-23% in November.
The CPI inflation in urban areas was registered at 24.6% year-on-year in the month under review as against an increase of 21.2% in September 2022 and 9.6% in October 2021.
It rose to 4.5% in October 2022 month-on-month compared to a fall of 2.1% in the previous month and an uptick of 1.7% in October last.
In rural areas, CPI inflation touched 29.5% year-on-year in the outgoing month vis-à-vis an increase of 26.1% in the previous month and 8.7% in October 2021.
It, month-on-month, increased to 5.0% in October 2022 as compared to an increase of 0.2% in the previous month and an increase of 2.2% in October last year.
Increasing inflationary pressures remain a major threat to the economy amid eroding foreign exchange reserves.
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held the interest rate unchanged, citing that the prevailing stance sustains just the right balance between managing inflation and maintaining the growth rate post-floods.
“On the one hand, inflation could be higher and more persistent due to the supply shock to food prices, and it is important to ensure that this additional impetus does not spill over into broader prices in the economy. On the other, growth prospects have weakened, which should reduce demand-side pressures and suppress underlying inflation,” MPC had said.
According to CPI numbers, inflation increased the sharpest in transport, food, housing, and restaurant and hotel groups in the outgoing month.
Persistently high inflation has severely strained the economy which is also under pressure from falling foreign exchange reserves, the rupee rout, and a yawning current account deficit.
SBP-held foreign exchange reserves stand at $7.4 billion, hardly enough to cover one month’s imports.
Devastating floods in August claimed more than 1,700 lives, while multiplying the economic problems by wiping out crops and infrastructure.
Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.
Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.
The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.
A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.
In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.
He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.
Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.
Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.
Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.
The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.
In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.
Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.
A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.
Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.
With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.
The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.
Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.
It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.
The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.
According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.
A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills. With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls. One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future. This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.