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Finance ministry readies itself for upcoming IMF review

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  • IMF team is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on Nov 2 and is expected to stay in Pakistan till Nov 16.
  • IMF team is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on Nov 2. 
  • It is expected to stay in Pakistan till Nov 16.
  • Real bone of contention to be external financing needs.

ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Finance has started preparing for the upcoming review talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that expected to are expected to begin this week, reported The News on Tuesday.

According to the publication, the ministry has evaluated the progress on key targets, including achieving the disbursement of Rs87.5 billion in cash transfers to beneficiaries under the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

IMF, under the quantitative performance criteria, had set the ceiling on the amount of government guarantees related target at Rs4,000 billion but the ministry was able to confine total guarantees to Rs3,853 billion till the end of September 2023. But the real bone of contention in the review talks would be the external financing needs of Pakistan.

The forex market functioning may also become a problematic issue as the IMF had placed the withdrawal of the circular on prioritisation in providing forex for certain types of imports introduced in December 2022 under a structural benchmark. It was placed under structural benchmark as the IMF wanted to ensure “full market determination of the exchange rate”.

The finance ministry in its meeting took note of the progress on quantitative performance criteria, continuous performance criteria, indicative target, and structural benchmark conditions agreed with the IMF for the end of September 2023 under the $3 billion standby arrangement (SBA) programme.

The IMF team is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on November 2 and is expected to stay in the country till November 16.

The government has also kept the circular debt of the power sector within the envisaged limits as it went up by Rs227 billion in the first quarter and touched Rs2.5 trillion by the end of September 2023.

“The target of increasing circular debt has been achieved successfully which was agreed with the IMF under revised circular debt management plan (CDMP),” an official told The News on Monday.

Regarding cash transfer to the beneficiaries under BISP, the official said that the government has so far disbursed Rs89 billion till September 2023 against the envisaged target of Rs87.5 billion. He added that the unconditional and conditional cash transfer was “well within the desired target”.

The official said that the next installment would be disbursed under BISP in November 2023, after which the cumulative disbursement under the programme would touch Rs185 billion. The government has allocated a disbursement target of Rs460 billion for BISP in the ongoing fiscal year.

Meanwhile, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) officials said that they are on track to meet the floor on net international reserves (NIR) which they said would stand at negative $14.5 billion till the end of September 2023.

The ceiling on net government budgetary borrowing from the SBP stood at Rs4,078 billion for the end of September 2023 as the government’s borrowing from the central bank remained zero.

The indicative target of FBR’s collection has been achieved as the floor on net tax revenues collected by the FBR was envisaged at Rs1,977 billion till the end of September 2023. The ceiling on net accumulation of tax refund arrears stood at Rs32 billion.

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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