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Finance ministry readies itself for upcoming IMF review

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  • IMF team is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on Nov 2 and is expected to stay in Pakistan till Nov 16.
  • IMF team is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on Nov 2. 
  • It is expected to stay in Pakistan till Nov 16.
  • Real bone of contention to be external financing needs.

ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Finance has started preparing for the upcoming review talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that expected to are expected to begin this week, reported The News on Tuesday.

According to the publication, the ministry has evaluated the progress on key targets, including achieving the disbursement of Rs87.5 billion in cash transfers to beneficiaries under the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

IMF, under the quantitative performance criteria, had set the ceiling on the amount of government guarantees related target at Rs4,000 billion but the ministry was able to confine total guarantees to Rs3,853 billion till the end of September 2023. But the real bone of contention in the review talks would be the external financing needs of Pakistan.

The forex market functioning may also become a problematic issue as the IMF had placed the withdrawal of the circular on prioritisation in providing forex for certain types of imports introduced in December 2022 under a structural benchmark. It was placed under structural benchmark as the IMF wanted to ensure “full market determination of the exchange rate”.

The finance ministry in its meeting took note of the progress on quantitative performance criteria, continuous performance criteria, indicative target, and structural benchmark conditions agreed with the IMF for the end of September 2023 under the $3 billion standby arrangement (SBA) programme.

The IMF team is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on November 2 and is expected to stay in the country till November 16.

The government has also kept the circular debt of the power sector within the envisaged limits as it went up by Rs227 billion in the first quarter and touched Rs2.5 trillion by the end of September 2023.

“The target of increasing circular debt has been achieved successfully which was agreed with the IMF under revised circular debt management plan (CDMP),” an official told The News on Monday.

Regarding cash transfer to the beneficiaries under BISP, the official said that the government has so far disbursed Rs89 billion till September 2023 against the envisaged target of Rs87.5 billion. He added that the unconditional and conditional cash transfer was “well within the desired target”.

The official said that the next installment would be disbursed under BISP in November 2023, after which the cumulative disbursement under the programme would touch Rs185 billion. The government has allocated a disbursement target of Rs460 billion for BISP in the ongoing fiscal year.

Meanwhile, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) officials said that they are on track to meet the floor on net international reserves (NIR) which they said would stand at negative $14.5 billion till the end of September 2023.

The ceiling on net government budgetary borrowing from the SBP stood at Rs4,078 billion for the end of September 2023 as the government’s borrowing from the central bank remained zero.

The indicative target of FBR’s collection has been achieved as the floor on net tax revenues collected by the FBR was envisaged at Rs1,977 billion till the end of September 2023. The ceiling on net accumulation of tax refund arrears stood at Rs32 billion.

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With inflation slowing, the SBP is anticipated to lower the policy rate for the eighth time in a row.

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Businesspeople anticipate another reduction in the policy rate when the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases the updated rate.

The interest rate for the upcoming two months will be announced by the central bank. It is still unclear if the rate will stay the same or be lowered to reflect stakeholder expectations.

According to experts, the policy rate will be lowered in order to further boost the nation’s economic sector.

Interest rates may be lowered for the seventh time in a row if the inflation rate declines significantly more than anticipated.

In its last six sessions, the MPC had cut the policy rate by 10 percent. In January 2025, it decreased the rate by one percent to 12pc.

12PC POLICY RATE

In January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced cut in key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 12 percent from 13pc in line with expectations of the business community.

The policy rate, which had been at 22 percent since June 2024, was slashed by 1,000 basis points to 12 percent.

The SBP governor said the decision was taken with careful consideration. “Although inflation is expected to decline next month (February), core inflation remains a pressing concern,” he stated.

Ahmed highlighted strong remittance inflows and robust export growth as key factors supporting the current account.

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Bulls in the stock market are still going strong.

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As the bullish trend persisted on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday, the KSE-100 index soared beyond the 115,000 level.

The PSX continued its upward trend from the weekend, and the KSE-100 index gained 600 points, reaching 115,048 points in early trading.

The index closed at 114,398 points on Friday, up 685 points.

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Issues Affecting Pakistan’s Textile Mills Industry: The Government Is Determined To Address Textile Industry Concerns: FM

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Muhammad Aurangzeb, minister of finance, has stated that the government is firmly committed to helping the textile industry in every way possible.
He made this pledge today in Islamabad during a meeting with the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association’s leadership.
In order to guarantee the long-term sustainability and future expansion of Pakistan’s industrial sector, the Minister also reaffirmed the government’s commitment to addressing important tax, energy, and funding challenges.
He welcomed the APTMA office-bearers and gave the delegation his word that the government is committed to resolving the issues facing the textile industry since it understands how important it is to Pakistan’s economy.
Muhammad Aurangzeb underlined that resolving the fundamental issues facing the sector is essential to establishing an atmosphere that is favorable for industrial expansion, promoting economic stability, and bolstering the country’s overall growth trajectory.

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