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Food inflation: Tight grain, oilseed supplies to keep prices elevated

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SINGAPORE: Drought or too much rain, the war in Ukraine and high energy costs look set to curb global farm production again next year, tightening supplies, even as high prices encourage farmers to boost planting.

Production of staples such as rice and wheat is unlikely to replenish depleted inventories, at least in the first half of 2023, while crops producing edible oils are suffering from adverse weather in Latin America and Southeast Asia.

“The world needs record crops to satisfy demand. In 2023, we absolutely need to do better than this year,” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at agriculture brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney.

“At this stage, it looks highly unlikely, if we look at the global production prospects for cereals and oilseeds.”

Wheat, corn and palm oil futures have from dropped from the record or multi-year highs but prices in the retail market remain elevated and tight supplies are forecast to support prices in 2023.

Why it matters

With food prices climbing to record peaks this year, millions of people are suffering across the world, especially in poorer nations in Africa and Asia already facing hunger and malnutrition.

Food import costs are already on course to hit a nearly $2 trillion record in 2022, forcing poor countries to cut consumption.

Benchmark Chicago wheat futures jumped to an all-time high of $13.64 a bushel in March after Russia’s invasion of key grain exporter Ukraine reduced supplies in a market already hit by adverse weather and post-pandemic restrictions.

Corn and soybeans climbed to their highest in a decade, while Malaysia’s benchmark crude palm oil prices climbed to a record high in March.

Wheat prices have since dropped to pre-war levels and palm oil has lost around 40% of its value, amid fears of a global recession, China’s COVID-19 restrictions and an extension of the Black Sea corridor deal for Ukrainian grain exports.

What does it mean for 2023?

While flooding in Australia, the world’s second-largest wheat exporter, in recent weeks has caused extensive damage to the crop which was ready for harvest, a severe drought is expected to shrink Argentina’s wheat crop by almost 40%.

This will reduce global wheat availability in the first half of 2023.

A lack of rainfall in the US Plains, where the winter crop ratings are running at the lowest since 2012, could dent supplies for the second half of the year.

For rice, prices are expected to remain high as long as export duties imposed earlier this year by India, the world’s biggest supplier, remain in place, traders said.

“Rice availability in most exporting countries is pretty thin except India, but it has export duties in place to reduce sales,” said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company.

“If we get a production shock in any of the top exporting or importing counties, it can really swing the market upside.”

The outlook for corn and soybeans in South America looks bright for its harvest in early 2023, although recent dryness in parts of Brazil, the world’s top bean exporter, has raised worries.

US domestic supplies of key crops including corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to remain snug into 2023, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

The agency is forecasting US corn supplies to fall to a decade low before the 2023 harvest, while soybean stocks were seen at a seven-year low and wheat ending stocks are forecast at the lowest in 15 years.

Palm oil, the world’s most consumed edible oil, is taking a hit from tropical storms across Southeast Asia where high costs have resulted in lower use of fertilizer.

Still, higher prices of grains and cereals have encouraged farmers to plant more crops in some countries including India, China and Brazil.

“Planting is higher in several countries but the output is expected to remain subdued due to adverse weather and other factors,” said Ole. “Production is unlikely to be enough to replenish supplies which have been drawn down.”

Explore the Reuters round-up of news stories that dominated the year, and the outlook for 2023. 

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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