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Gas prices to go up 10-15% as govt aims to reduce circular debt

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  • Circular debt currently stands at Rs1,250 billion.
  • Govt officials say govt is contemplating an increase in gas prices.
  • An increase of just 5% to generate Rs50 billion is likely, they add.

ISLAMABAD: The government is likely to hike gas prices by 10% to 15% in its bid to reduce circular debt that currently stands at Rs1,250 billion, The News reported on Thursday.

The decision comes after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) asked Islamabad to hike natural gas prices from January 1 next year. The lender is, however, aware of the government collecting Rs980 billion in revenue during the ongoing FY24 owing to the massive hike in gas prices by up to 193%.

“The authorities are contemplating an increase in the natural gas sale price by 10-15%, which will yield Rs100 billion in additional revenue. It is to be used for slashing the natural gas circular debt. However, the final decision to this effect has not been taken so far,” senior government officials of the Energy Ministry told the publication, adding that gas prices will increase by just 5% to generate Rs50 billion.

With the massive rise in gas price by up to 193% from November 1, 2023, the government will have surplus revenue of Rs275 billion which will be consumed in paying the Rs210 billion cost to be incurred against the RLNG diversion to the domestic sector in the ongoing winter season. It also offsets the loss of Rs65 billion incurred due to the failure of the government to notify gas price hike four months late.

The gas companies, Sui Southern and Sui Northern will submit their petitions with the OGRA seeking an adjustment in gas prices from January 1, 2023, which will most probably ask for a downward revision of gas prices.

However, the Fund wants the government to further increase gas prices by 10-15% from January 1, 2024. The Fund pinpointed that the government has failed to hike the gas tariff biannually for the last 10 years since 2013, causing a massive buildup in the gas circular debt.

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The PSX has resumed operations, achieving a gain of 970 points.

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The optimistic close at the PSX was propelled by rumors preceding the International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board meeting on September 25, at which the approval of a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is expected, stated Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Commodities.

Strong economic indicators, such as increasing remittances, escalating exports, and a declining trade deficit, further bolstered investor confidence. Furthermore, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) commitment to a $2 billion yearly concessional loan until 2027, along with a robust rupee, significantly contributed to the market’s favorable performance, he stated.

Widespread purchasing at the PSX was noted among blue-chip stocks, with major players like Mari Petroleum (MARI), Engro Fertilizers (EFERT), United Bank Limited (UBL), Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL), and Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) recording substantial increases. According to Topline Securities, these stocks collectively resulted in a significant 682-point increase in the index.

Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) announced its fiscal year 2024 results, revealing a profits per share (EPS) of Rs 22.79 and a cash dividend of Rs 10 per share. This announcement contributed to the favorable sentiment in the market.

Trading volume surpassed 400.2 million shares, resulting in a total turnover of Rs15.9 billion. Worldcall Telecom Limited (WTL) topped the volume chart, transacting more than 32.2 million shares.

The Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) demonstrated a year-on-year (YoY) gain of 2.4% in July 2024. This expansion was propelled by multiple critical areas.

Tobacco experienced a significant increase of 90.2%, establishing it as the foremost contributor to the LSMI growth. Conversely, the automotive sector witnessed a substantial increase of 72.0%, indicating robust demand and output.

The transport equipment category experienced an 11.7% increase, signifying robust growth in the manufacturing of transport-related machinery and equipment. The other manufacturing sector experienced a gain of 10.7%, positively impacting the overall LSMI.

Nevertheless, not all industries exhibited strong performance. The leading decliner was the fabricated metal sector, which experienced an 18.4% decrease, signifying a contraction in metal product manufacturing. The electrical equipment industry experienced a substantial decline of 19.4%, indicative of reduced output levels.

In July 2024, the LSMI decreased by 2.1% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. This fall signifies a minor contraction in manufacturing operations relative to the preceding month, although the favorable year-on-year growth.

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As of August 2024, Pakistan’s current account is in surplus.

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Pakistan’s current account deficit was $161 million as of August 2023, according to figures from the central bank.

The current account deficit for the months of July and August of this year was $171 million, compared to $939 million for the same time in the previous fiscal year.

According to experts, the 40% rise in remittances is the primary cause of the current account surplus.

August saw US$ 2.9 billion in offshore remittances to Pakistan, according to experts.

Comparing July of this year to July of last year, total exports increased by 11.3% YoY to $3.01 billion. In contrast to the $3.08 billion in exports the month before, it decreased by 2.2%.

Compared to the $4.99 billion in imports recorded in July of previous year, total imports increased 12.2% YoY to $5.6 billion. Imports decreased by 1.3% over the previous month.

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Islamic Sukuk Bonds: Government Is Expected To Begin Bond Auction Next Week

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There is now more positive economic news for the people of Pakistan. The government is anticipated to begin the Sukuk Islamic Bond auction next week, after the central bank’s announcement of a large drop in the policy rate.

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