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Govt mulls slapping up to 70% Windfall Tax on banking sector’s lofty profits

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  • Sources says govt considering slapping fixed tax rate between 50%- 70%. 
  • Govt determining exact levels of profits extracted through recent currency manipulation by banks.
  • Officials working on proposal studied Windfall Tax imposed by UK, Austria, Italy, Australia and other countries.

ISLAMABAD: The government is considering slapping a Windfall Tax on the profits of the banking sector in the range of 50% to 70% similar to the one used in the West, which imposed the same tax on energy companies, reported The News on Friday.

“Different proposals are under consideration for imposing the Windfall Tax on profits earned by the banking sector. A fixed tax rate from 50% to 70% is expected to be slapped for getting revenues out of the lofty profits earned by the banks,” officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told the publication.

However, sources in the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) said that the proposal is yet to be approved by the government though Finance Minister Ishaq Dar had hinted in his press briefing on Wednesday that the government would move ahead with the Windfall Tax on the banking sector.

The government is ascertaining the exact levels of windfall profits extracted by the banking sector through recent currency manipulation. The policymakers may slap a tax at a rate whereby there is no threat of choking the banking sector.

The tax officials who are working on this proposal studied the Windfall Tax imposed by the United Kingdom, Austria, Italy, Australia and other countries whereby the energy companies had earned lofty profits in the aftermath of Russia-Ukraine war, so the respective governments had imposed the Windfall Tax to generate revenue. Even the Biden administration in the USA had threatened to impose Windfall Tax.

The recent energy crisis across Europe as a result of COVID-19, poor market decisions and the Ukraine war have pushed energy prices to all-time high. 

Countries across Europe were moving to build up reserves in the face of restricted gas supplies to minimise the effects of a cold winter. At the same time, some governments were even considering country-wide blackouts and energy rationing to ensure that, at the very least, there was enough gas to heat homes.

“The government expects that in case of imposition of 50% to 70% fixed tax rate on lofty bank profits, the government can fetch Rs25 to Rs35 billion revenue generation,” said one official.

On the proposed Flood Levy, the government might grant an exemption on import of basic food items and raw materials of essential or life-saving drugs. 

The levy could be in the range of 1% to 3% on all other imported items. It is estimated that the government can fetch Rs60 billion in the remaining six months of the current fiscal year 2022-23.

Sources said the government will prefer the Flood Levy because it will not become a part of the Federal Divisible Pool (FDP) under the NFC Award for distribution among the provinces, so the collected money will only be used by the federal government.

On the other hand, the FBR seeks to meet the annual tax collection target of Rs7,470 billion for the current fiscal year and has so far collected Rs3,428 billion in the first six months (July-Dec) period. 

Now the tax authorities will have to collect Rs4,042 billion for materialising the desired tax collection target till June 30, 2022.

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The government has introduced a comprehensive strategy to enhance industrial investment.

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Authorities are poised to execute an ambitious investment promotion strategy through a collaborative initiative between the National Institute of Public Administration (NIPA) and the Pakistan Administrative Staff College, aiming for substantial enhancements in industrial investment and economic development.

The Special Investment Facilitation Center (SIFC) will be instrumental in this transformative drive by establishing “Business Facilitation Centers” aimed at optimizing investment processes and attracting both domestic and foreign capital.

Principal features of the comprehensive plan encompass:

  1. Forming collaborative working groups to augment domestic and international investment prospects
  2. Formulating a comprehensive strategy to eradicate obstacles to industrial development
  3. Formulating a novel model to tackle issues in the execution of industrial projects
  4. Striving to enhance Pakistan’s international business rating by 50 points
    Targeting $20 billion in foreign industrial investments within the next five years.

The approach prioritizes digital transformation to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the investment process. SIFC’s strategy emphasizes fostering a favorable atmosphere for investors by streamlining bureaucratic processes and offering strategic assistance.

National administration officers are conducting ongoing study to identify and mitigate potential investment barriers, while a specialized research group is formulating a comprehensive strategy to solve current hurdles in industrial growth.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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