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Govt will need to import 3m tonnes of wheat, warns trade body

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  • PBF Vice Chairman Ahmad Jawad says looming wheat gap within Pakistan may morph into a full-blown crisis soon.
  • Forum urges provincial food depts to monitor wheat purchase by private sector to avoid hoarding.
  • Says govt could have to import a minimum of 3 million tonnes of grain to stabilise the market.

ISLAMABAD: A trade body on Monday warned of a looming wheat crisis in the country , urging the government to ban wheat exports to stabilise the wheat prices and cater to supply gaps.

“Looming wheat gap within the country currently seems prepared to morph into a full-blown crisis over the approaching months,” said Pakistan Businesses Forum (PBF) Vice President Ahmad Jawad.

PBF urged provincial food departments to monitor wheat purchase by the private sector and curb involvement of middlemen to avoid hoarding. The explanations embodied domestic output inadequacy and billowy international costs within the wake Ukraine issue. The flour costs were probably to rise additional if the govt remained unable to manage imports and take action against hoarders, it added.

The explanations embodied domestic output inadequacy and billowy international costs in the wake of the Ukraine issue. The flour costs were probably to rise additional if the govt remained unable to manage imports and take action against hoarders, it added.

“Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has been educated that this wheat harvest is probably going to hover around 26.2 million tonnes against the target of 28.9 million tonnes.” 

The forum said the government may have to import a minimum of 3 million tonnes of grain to stabilise the market and meet the demand of 30.8 million tonnes, despite a carryover stock of 1 million ton.

PBF said that the imports could surpass estimates, pushed by wheat smuggling into Afghanistan, adding that market players had decried wheat imports in the extended quantity. 

“One, the cereal is briefly provided globally owing to a poor harvest, secondly, Pakistan doesn’t have enough bucks to get costly imports with the nation’s foreign currency reserves plunging to $10.5 billion on the widening trade and accounting deficits.”

“What will wheat shortages and costly imports mean for the shoppers,” the group questioned. The flour millers have already raised their costs in Punjab by Rs11 per weight unit supported the open market wheat value of Rs2,200 per 40kg when the termination of official releases.

Punjab had been providing wheat to the millers at the subsidised value of Rs1,950 per 40kg, which was additional slashed to Rs1,600 for the first 20 days of Ramadan.

“The flour inadequacy within the market and also the high value of the artifact could increase food insecurity within the country, particularly within the additional backward and poorer districts of the country, unless the govt proactively ensures its convenience at subsidised rates.”

Jawad deplored wheat shortages and increasing imports, and asked for immediate measures to deal with factors such as water shortage, poor farm management practices, global climate change, and carbamide inconvenience, which had bogged down the agriculture sector.

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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