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How 2022 shocked, rocked and rolled global markets

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  • World stocks down 20% in worst year since financial crisis.
  • Wild swings in commodity and FX due to rate rises and war.
  • Crypto crashes and defaults have added to volatility.

LONDON: Trillions of dollars wiped off world stocks, bond market tantrums, whip-sawing currency and commodities and the collapse of a few crypto empires — 2022 has been perhaps the most turbulent year investors have ever seen, and for good reason.

Tallying the final numbers is useful but doesn’t even come close to telling the whole story.

Yes, global equities are down $14 trillion and heading for their second worst year on record, but there have been nearly 300 interest rate hikes and a trio of 10%-plus rallies in that time making the volatility freakish.

The main drivers have been the war in Ukraine, combined with rampant inflation as global economies broke out of the pandemic, but China remained shackled by it.

US Treasuries and German bonds, the benchmarks of global borrowing markets and traditional go-to assets in troubled times, lost 16% and 24% respectively in dollar terms.

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffery Gundlach, dubbed the ‘Bond King’ in the markets, says conditions got so ugly at points that his team found it almost impossible to trade for days at a time.

“There has been a buyer’s strike,” he said. “And understandably so because prices have just been going down until recently.”

How 2022 shocked, rocked and rolled global markets

Drama kicked in as soon as it became clear that COVID was not going to shutter the global economy again and the world’s most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, was serious about raising interest rates.

Ten-year Treasury yields jumped to 1.8% from less than 1.5%, knocking 5% off MSCI’s world stocks index in January alone.

That yield is now at 3.68%, stocks are down 20% while oil prices surged 80% before giving it all up. The Fed has delivered 400bps of hikes and the European Central Bank a record 250bps, despite saying this time last year it was unlikely to budge.

The dollar this week gave the yen a lift.

In emerging markets, Turkey’s inflation and monetary policy problems have cost the lira another 28%, but its stock market is the best performer in the world.

Hard-pressed Egypt devalued its currency more than 36%. Ghana’s cedi crashed 60% as it has joined Sri Lanka in default. Despite being well down from its June highs, Russia’s rouble is still the world’s second-best performing currency supported by Moscow’s capital controls. It was initially smashed after the invasion of Ukraine.

How 2022 shocked, rocked and rolled global markets

“If you ask me what will happen next year I really couldn’t tell you,” said Close Brothers Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer Robert Alster, who, like many, also pointed to the pummeling the pound and British bond markets took when the short-lived government of Liz Truss flirted with an unfunded spending splurge.

Ten-year gilt yields soared over 100 bps and the pound lost 9% in a matter of days — moves the scale of which are rare in major markets.

“If you sell it wrong, don’t be surprised if it goes down like a cup of cold sick,” said veteran CMC Markets’ analyst Michael Hewson.

Tech problems

The surge in rates has also taken $3.6 trillion off the tech titans. Facebook and Tesla have both hemorrhaged more than 60% while Alphabet’s Google and Amazon are respectively down 40% and 50%.

Chinese stocks have staged a late rally thanks to signs that its zero-COVID policy’s days are numbered but they are still down 25% and emerging market ‘hard currency’ government debt will notch its first ever back-to-back loss.

How 2022 shocked, rocked and rolled global markets

Initial public offerings and bond sales have also slumped almost everywhere apart from the Middle East, while commodities have been the best-performing asset class for a second consecutive year.

Natural gas’ more than 50% rise is the best overall in that group, albeit largely due to the war in Ukraine which had hoisted prices 140% at one point.

Mounting recession worries along with the West’s plan to stop buying Russian oil mean Brent has given back the entire 80% it made in the first quarter, as have wheat and corn.

How 2022 shocked, rocked and rolled global markets

The cryptomarket has been even more chaotic. Bitcoin ends 2022 robbed of its cocktail of cheap money and leveraged bets.

The pre-eminent cryptocurrency has lost 60% of its value, while the wider crypto market has shrunk by $1.4 trillion, squashed by the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire, Celsius and supposed ‘stablecoins’ terraUSD and Luna.

“What has gone in global markets this year has been traumatic,” said EFG Bank Chief Economist and ex-Deputy Governor of Ireland’s central bank, Stefan Gerlach.

“But if central banks hadn’t underestimated the rise in inflation so dramatically and had to jack up interest rates, it wouldn’t have been so catastrophic”.

How 2022 shocked, rocked and rolled global markets

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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