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IMF deal pushes Pakistani rupee up by 11.1 against dollar

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KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee on Tuesday gained massively in the interbank market during the intraday trade after the government struck a deal with International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The country on Friday secured a $3 billion short-term financial package from the IMF, giving the economy some much-awaited respite as it teeters on the brink of default.

The greenback was changing hands with the rupee at Rs274.98 after losing Rs11.1 in the interbank during the intraday trade. It closed at 285.99 on June 27 — the last trading session before the Eid holidays.

The dollar had on May 11 soared to a record-high Rs290.93 in the interbank. Since then, it has posted a drop of Rs23.43.

Speaking to Geo News, Topline Securities CEO Mohammad Sohail said that the rupee has gained up to 3% as expected.

“The sustainability of the gains will be confirmed in the coming days as the government claims that the partial funds under the deal will be disbursed by the mid of July.”

Sohail added that the government has also claimed that it would secure around $4-$5 billion from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Islamic Development Bank — which would improve the dollar liquidity issues.

The Topline Securities chief executive said that if these payments materialise, the rupee will likely remain strong and stable.

“However, the pressure could increase if the payments get delayed.”

If we believe the government’s claims that Pakistan’s reserves will increase to $14 billion by August, then the rupee will likely stabilise around 270 or 280, he added.

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E&P Companies Will Invest $5 Billion in Pakistan’s Petroleum Industry

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Over the next three years, local and foreign companies involved in Pakistan’s oil and gas exploration and production sector have shown a strong desire to invest more than $5 billion in the nation’s energy sector.

Recent changes to the Petroleum Policy and the implementation of an exclusive tight gas policy, which provide better incentives and a more investor-friendly regulatory framework, are credited with the increase in investor confidence.

These strategic changes are expected to boost domestic energy production, open up new avenues for growth, and draw large amounts of both domestic and foreign investment.

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With inflation slowing, the SBP is anticipated to lower the policy rate for the eighth time in a row.

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Businesspeople anticipate another reduction in the policy rate when the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases the updated rate.

The interest rate for the upcoming two months will be announced by the central bank. It is still unclear if the rate will stay the same or be lowered to reflect stakeholder expectations.

According to experts, the policy rate will be lowered in order to further boost the nation’s economic sector.

Interest rates may be lowered for the seventh time in a row if the inflation rate declines significantly more than anticipated.

In its last six sessions, the MPC had cut the policy rate by 10 percent. In January 2025, it decreased the rate by one percent to 12pc.

12PC POLICY RATE

In January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced cut in key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 12 percent from 13pc in line with expectations of the business community.

The policy rate, which had been at 22 percent since June 2024, was slashed by 1,000 basis points to 12 percent.

The SBP governor said the decision was taken with careful consideration. “Although inflation is expected to decline next month (February), core inflation remains a pressing concern,” he stated.

Ahmed highlighted strong remittance inflows and robust export growth as key factors supporting the current account.

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Bulls in the stock market are still going strong.

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As the bullish trend persisted on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday, the KSE-100 index soared beyond the 115,000 level.

The PSX continued its upward trend from the weekend, and the KSE-100 index gained 600 points, reaching 115,048 points in early trading.

The index closed at 114,398 points on Friday, up 685 points.

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