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IMF range of 1.25% between interbank, kerb rates of dollar breached over last five days

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  • Difference ranges between 2% to 4% for last five working days.
  • Local currency in interbank market continues to slide.
  • IMF under SBA mandated spread not to be more than 1.25% in five consecutive business days on weekly basis.

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) structural benchmark for keeping the difference between interbank and open market rates for US dollar against the Pakistani rupee within the band range of 1.25% had been breached at least for the last five working days, The News reported on Thursday.

The difference ranged between 2% to 4% in the last five consecutive days whereas the global lender might raise this issue, with the caretaker government, in the upcoming negotiations expected to be held at the end of October or early November this year.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been unable to keep the difference in exchange rate within the desired limit of 1.25% so far despite witnessing depreciation in the exchange rate.

The clearance of stuck-up containers at ports, payment of dividends, and removal of other restrictions have increased pressures on the exchange rate. 

Secondly, the IMF condition has been resulting in dollarisation because the interbank market was following the open market so everyone knows that investing in the dollar would increase benefits.

This scribe sent out a question to the SBP two days ago inquiring whether the agreed benchmark with the IMF was breached in the last five working days as the gap between the interbank and open market ranged around 4%. What’s the view of the SBP and how you ensured monitoring and then report it back to the IMF on a weekly basis?

The SBP’s spokesperson replied on Wednesday and stated “We do not have any comment to offer”.

The IMF under Standby Arrangement (SBA) mandated spread not to be more than 1.25% in five consecutive business days on a weekly basis.

The local currency in the interbank market continues to slide as the rupee in the interbank market stood at Rs295 and in the open market around Rs305 so the difference stood at 3.4%. From January 1, 2023, to August 15, 2023, the rupee witnessed a devaluation of 22.32% against the US dollar.

Independent economists feared that episodes of exchange rate depreciation were continuously expected during the gradual return to a market-based exchange rate.

While the rupee experienced an appreciation following the IMF under SBA, this effect was a combination of an increase in market confidence and depreciation of the US dollar. Because the trend of depreciation since FY23 has been driven by a deterioration of economic fundamentals, the effect of increased market confidence was only temporary, and the rupee-dollar exchange rate has returned to pre-SBA levels.

The recent depreciation could be attributed to the return to a market-determined exchange rate and commitment of no formal or informal intervention in foreign exchange markets, SBP’s interventions to be guided by the overarching objective of increasing reserves to at least $6.4 billion (1 month of import cover) by end of December 2023 and reducing SBP’s net forward/swap position to below $4 billion.

The foreign exchange sales are not to be used to prevent a trend depreciation of the rupee driven by economic fundamentals.

The policy rate was jacked up to 22% on June 26th, 2023, and will be further adjusted until inflation and inflation expectations are on a clear downward trend. The real policy rate (i.e., policy rate adjusted for inflation) might be brought into positive territory.

The withdrawal of a December 2022 circular issued to banks on prioritization in providing FX for certain types of imports, and a gradual phase-out of other FX and import restrictions, including the limitations on advance payments for imports against letters of credits (LCs) and advance payments beyond a certain amount per invoice (without LC) for the import of eligible items, and multiple currency practices also increased pressures on the exchange rate.

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Finance Minister Meets With World Leaders at World Economic Forum in Davos

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During his attendance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has met with officials of organisations and leaders of many nations.
Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor, Muhammad Younas, met with Mohammad Aurangzeb.
On the fringes of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2025 Opening Banquet, there was an informal meeting.
Additionally, the Finance Minister met with Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime Minister of Malaysia.
Both leaders discussed economic cooperation and bilateral ties.
Muhammad Aurangzeb also had a meeting with Dp World’s Rizwan Soomro and Yuvraj Narayan.
They talked about how to strengthen Pakistan’s logistics and infrastructure systems to support trade.
“The Pakistani government is committed to advancing joint projects and values partnerships in both business-to-business and business-to-government cooperation,” the finance minister added.

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China will establish a $250 million EV production facility in Pakistan.

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As Islamabad looks to Beijing to work with it to establish industrial zones for the production of electronic vehicles, the media said Wednesday that China’s ADM Group would invest $250 million to establish an electric vehicle manufacturing unit in Pakistan.

With an even more ambitious target of 90 percent by 2040, the Pakistani government established the National Electric Vehicles Policy (NEVP) in 2019 with the goal of having 30 percent of all passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks be electric by 2030.

By 2030, the policy aimed to achieve 50% of new sales for two- and three-wheelers and buses, and by 2040, 90%.

As part of the Special Investment Facilitation Council’s efforts to draw in foreign investment, Radio Pakistan reported that the Chinese company ADM Group had announced an investment of $250 million to establish an EV manufacturing plant in Pakistan.

“The switch to EVs is anticipated to save billions of dollars by reducing the cost of fuel imports.”

More than 3,000 electric vehicle charging stations will be installed throughout Pakistan, a South Asian nation, as part of ADM Group’s $350 million investment in the EV industry last year.

Pakistan announced earlier this month that, as part of its ongoing energy sector reform aimed at increasing demand, it would reduce the power rate for operators of electric vehicle charging stations by 45 percent.

Additionally, financial programs for e-bikes and the conversion of gasoline-powered two- and three-wheeled vehicles are planned by the government.

On January 15, the government approved a lower tariff of 39.70 rupees ($0.14) per unit, which will take effect in a month. The previous tariff was 71.10 rupees.

The government anticipates that investors in the industry will see an internal rate of return of over 20 percent.

There are currently over 30 million two- and three-wheeled cars in Pakistan, and they use more than $5 billion worth of petroleum each year, according to a report that Power Ministry adviser Ammar Habib Khan provided to the government and that was covered by Reuters.

The paper estimates that the ministry will save around $165 million in gasoline import expenses each year by converting 1 million two-wheelers to electric motorcycles in a first phase, at an estimated net cost of 40,000 rupees per bike.

In September, BYD Pakistan, a joint venture between China’s BYD and the Pakistani automaker Mega Motors, informed Reuters that, in accordance with international goals, up to 50% of all vehicles purchased in Pakistan by 2030 will be electrified in some way.

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The government has introduced a comprehensive strategy to enhance industrial investment.

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Authorities are poised to execute an ambitious investment promotion strategy through a collaborative initiative between the National Institute of Public Administration (NIPA) and the Pakistan Administrative Staff College, aiming for substantial enhancements in industrial investment and economic development.

The Special Investment Facilitation Center (SIFC) will be instrumental in this transformative drive by establishing “Business Facilitation Centers” aimed at optimizing investment processes and attracting both domestic and foreign capital.

Principal features of the comprehensive plan encompass:

  1. Forming collaborative working groups to augment domestic and international investment prospects
  2. Formulating a comprehensive strategy to eradicate obstacles to industrial development
  3. Formulating a novel model to tackle issues in the execution of industrial projects
  4. Striving to enhance Pakistan’s international business rating by 50 points
    Targeting $20 billion in foreign industrial investments within the next five years.

The approach prioritizes digital transformation to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the investment process. SIFC’s strategy emphasizes fostering a favorable atmosphere for investors by streamlining bureaucratic processes and offering strategic assistance.

National administration officers are conducting ongoing study to identify and mitigate potential investment barriers, while a specialized research group is formulating a comprehensive strategy to solve current hurdles in industrial growth.

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