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IMF to ‘remain engaged’ with Pakistan despite political tumult

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  • “Pakistan authorities have committed not to introduce fuel cross-subsidy,” IMF says.
  • Fund says it sees no indication that Pakistan wants to pause negotiations.
  • Political crisis in the wake of Imran Khan’s arrest have sparked concerns about IMF programme.

Amid speculations that Pakistan’s chances of clinching a long-suspended International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout have been reduced due to the political situation, the lender clarified that it “remains engaged” with Islamabad, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

Declining to comment on the arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan, the spokesperson of the global lender said: “IMF remains engaged with Pakistan on securing funding and policy assurances with the goal of reaching an agreement on the ninth review of the $6.7 billion loan agreed in 2019.”

“The IMF sees no indication that Pakistan wants to pause negotiations on disbursement from the current programme,” the spokesperson told the foreign publication.

Following the arrest of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman, concerns sparked that Pakistan was edging closer to a default as political unrest will delay an IMF bailout.

“It looks increasingly difficult for Pakistan to avoid a default in the absence of fresh funding support coming in,” said Eng Tat Low, an emerging-market sovereign analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments in Singapore.

“I am also growing more skeptical whether an IMF deal is going to come through. Their heavy debt amortisation against precarious reserves would suggest default is imminent,” he added.

Violent protests erupted in Pakistan on Tuesday with dozens injured across several cities and demonstrators attacking military buildings after Khan was arrested. Moreover, the police initiated a crackdown and arrested the top leadership of the party along with thousands of workers.

The rupee slumped to a record low and slid over 3% a dollar on Thursday. Dollar bonds due 2031 fell to the lowest since November and were indicated at 33.10 cents on the dollar.

‘No petrol subsidy’

Moreover, the Fund also revealed that Pakistani authorities have committed to the lender that petrol subsidy would not be introduced.

“Pakistan authorities have committed not to introduce fuel cross-subsidy scheme in F23 [fiscal year 2022-23] and beyond,” the spokesperson said.

The statement comes as a surprise as Minister of State for Petroleum Dr Musadik Malik, on Tuesday, said that Pakistan aims to address IMF’s concerns before implementing its new fuel subsidy plan.

“The IMF had some reservations about the government’s plan to raise fuel prices for wealthier motorists to finance a subsidy for lower-income people”, he said on Bloomberg TV in an interview.

Malik said: “We originally thought that it was a much simpler idea. We want to make sure now that if we move forward, we take care of their concerns and make sure that they completely understand what we are trying to do and why.”

However, the Washington-based lender has now said that Pakistan has already committed to the Fund that it would not introduce the subsidy.

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E&P Companies Will Invest $5 Billion in Pakistan’s Petroleum Industry

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Over the next three years, local and foreign companies involved in Pakistan’s oil and gas exploration and production sector have shown a strong desire to invest more than $5 billion in the nation’s energy sector.

Recent changes to the Petroleum Policy and the implementation of an exclusive tight gas policy, which provide better incentives and a more investor-friendly regulatory framework, are credited with the increase in investor confidence.

These strategic changes are expected to boost domestic energy production, open up new avenues for growth, and draw large amounts of both domestic and foreign investment.

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With inflation slowing, the SBP is anticipated to lower the policy rate for the eighth time in a row.

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Businesspeople anticipate another reduction in the policy rate when the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases the updated rate.

The interest rate for the upcoming two months will be announced by the central bank. It is still unclear if the rate will stay the same or be lowered to reflect stakeholder expectations.

According to experts, the policy rate will be lowered in order to further boost the nation’s economic sector.

Interest rates may be lowered for the seventh time in a row if the inflation rate declines significantly more than anticipated.

In its last six sessions, the MPC had cut the policy rate by 10 percent. In January 2025, it decreased the rate by one percent to 12pc.

12PC POLICY RATE

In January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced cut in key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 12 percent from 13pc in line with expectations of the business community.

The policy rate, which had been at 22 percent since June 2024, was slashed by 1,000 basis points to 12 percent.

The SBP governor said the decision was taken with careful consideration. “Although inflation is expected to decline next month (February), core inflation remains a pressing concern,” he stated.

Ahmed highlighted strong remittance inflows and robust export growth as key factors supporting the current account.

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Bulls in the stock market are still going strong.

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As the bullish trend persisted on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday, the KSE-100 index soared beyond the 115,000 level.

The PSX continued its upward trend from the weekend, and the KSE-100 index gained 600 points, reaching 115,048 points in early trading.

The index closed at 114,398 points on Friday, up 685 points.

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