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Initiatives to Raise the Tax-to-GDP Ratio: Aurangzeb

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Pakistan is beginning discussions with the IMF for Climate Resiliency Funding, and the Finance Minister has stated that reprofiled talks with China are positive as the country attempts to extend payment times.

China has responded positively to Pakistan’s request to extend the maturities of debt related to the Belt and Road program, the Finance Minister stated in a Bloomberg interview.

The nation wants to “create enough space” to reduce electricity, according to Muhammad Aurangzeb, by lengthening the maturities of debt taken out for power plants.

“These are the early stages of those negotiations,” he stated. The former banker for JPMorgan Chase & Co. visited China in July and spoke with Chinese officials about debt.

To avoid having to borrow from the IMF again, he said, the nation must continue to exercise self-control in order to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio from below 10% to 13.5%.

With 25 IMF programs, he said, Pakistan is one of the most frequent borrowers. While the Pakistani delegation is attending the conference in Washington, the government hopes to start talking about asking the IMF for more funding through its Climate Resiliency Fund.

Pakistan would target industries like retail and agriculture that have resisted past taxation initiatives in order to achieve its objective, he added. By January, the provinces of the country will begin working on agriculture-related laws, with the goal of beginning collection by July.

The central bank of Pakistan has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 450 basis points, from a record 22% to 17.5%, for three consecutive meetings, he added. The policy rate may be lowered by the Central Bank during its upcoming meeting on November 4.

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As negotiations for the next $1 billion start, the IMF seeks a crackdown on tax evasion in Pakistan’s real estate.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged action against people who falsify property values and has asked for tougher steps to stop tax cheating in Pakistan’s real estate industry.

The government promised the IMF that it would activate the Real Estate Regulatory Authority as part of the proposed reforms.

Sources claim that people and brokers who inflate property valuations will face severe consequences, such as fines and jail time.

Agents who do not register may be fined up to Rs500,000, according to sources.

The Real Estate Regulatory Authority has the authority to inflict a maximum sentence of three years in prison. Agents that give misleading information risk having their licences revoked by the authority.

Agents who give false information risk fines ranging from Rs200,000 to Rs500,000.

Fines for property transfer misstatements might range from Rs 500,000 to Rs 1 million.

The new rules are intended to stop financial fraud and increase openness in the real estate industry.

Negotiations for the next $1 billion installment of Pakistan’s $7 billion loan programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) started underway Monday.

According to the finance ministry, since Pakistan has previously complied with the most of the IMF’s stringent requirements, formal discussions between the IMF mission and the Pakistani government team were scheduled to last for two weeks.

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March inflation is predicted to increase somewhat.

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In its most recent report released on Thursday, the Finance Division predicted that Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation would remain stable in February but would probably increase little in March.

The “Monthly Economic Update and Outlook” for February 2025 predicts that inflation will stay between two and three percent in February and then slightly climb to three to four percent in March.

The seasonal spike in food prices during Ramadan is the reason for this surge.

Higher household spending on food, drinks, and other consumables at this time usually results in inflationary pressures, which analysts believe will help drive the expected increase in the inflation rate.

The research also emphasized that, with the help of a supportive monetary policy, inflationary pressures should decrease over the year. Despite the sector’s sluggish recovery, this trend is expected to promote a more stable financial climate, increasing company confidence and aiding in the recovery of large-scale manufacturing (LSM). Even while the LSM recovered more slowly, the report also pointed out that export-oriented industries kept expanding.

According to the Finance Division’s projection, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) was able to reduce its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 12% in January due in large part to the decline in inflation. After a string of dramatic rate reduction over the previous six months with the goal of promoting growth and containing inflation, this cut was a component of the larger monetary easing cycle.

One of the biggest rate cuts among emerging economies occurred last year when the SBP cut its policy rate from a record high of 22% in June 2024. The goal of these reductions was to control inflation, which had risen to a record 38% in May 2023 but had since begun to decline. According to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), CPI-based inflation from January 2025 was 2.4% year-over-year, which was lower than the 4.1% rate in December 2024.

According to the Finance Division study, positive supply-side variables and low domestic demand reduced inflationary pressures. The financial climate has become more stable as a result of these factors and declining interest rates, allowing the SBP to continue its strategy of gradual rate reductions.

The research also highlighted encouraging trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances, which have improved economic optimism. It is anticipated that these elements, in addition to robust growth in imports and exports, will contain the current account deficit in the upcoming months.

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600 Iranian lorries are detained at the Pakistani border, costing $2.2 million every day due to new customs regulations.

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According to a news release, a Tehran delegate informed a Pakistani parliamentary panel this week that Iranian vehicles stalled on the Pakistani border for the previous six months as a result of new customs regulations had suffered an estimated daily economic loss of $2.2 million.

Last year, Pakistan forced Iranian carriers to furnish a bank guarantee equal to the customs taxes and charges paid on products arriving at the National Logistics Corporation (NLC) Dry Port Quetta through the Iranian border crossing of Taftan. Islamabad is not required to provide Tehran with the same assurances.

The Senate Standing Committee on Finance said in a news release following its meeting that “the ongoing crisis at the Pakistan-Iran border, where over 600 trucks carrying trade goods have been stuck due to customs officials demanding court orders, was one of the most pressing issues discussed.”

Each truck carried supplies valued at about $11,000, according to the Iranian official at the meeting, and the delay was costing traders around $100 per truck every day, which ultimately increased the price of goods for consumers.

According to the statement, “an estimated daily economic loss of $2.2 million has resulted from the drop in the number of trucks crossing the border in the past six months.”

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif would now receive a letter from the senate committee asking him to bring up the issue at the upcoming cabinet meeting.

“This problem has escalated to a critical stage. It is an issue of honor for the country as well as financial losses. The issue is extremely worrisome for the entire nation,” committee chairman Saleem Mandiwalla stated.

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