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Lacklustre week drags PSX downward

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  • Investors remained on the sidelines in outgoing week.
  • Moody’s decision, rupee-dollar party played on investors’ minds.
  • KSE-100 index declined 137 points or 0.3%.

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed tepid trading in the outgoing week as Moody’s rating kept market participants mostly on the sidelines.

Moody’s decision, fluctuating rupee-dollar parity, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves played on investors’ minds during the week. Resultantly, the KSE-100 index declined 137 points or 0.3% to end the week at 41,948.50 points.

The market commenced the week on a positive note as investors’ interest revived on optimism that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) would maintain a status quo in its monetary policy announcement.

Investors’ interest was also fuelled by a statement from Finance Minister Ishaq Dar that Pakistan would not seek debt restructuring from the Paris Club and would meet all multi-lateral and international payment obligations.

The stock market, however, reversed the trend on Tuesday as investors opted for profit-booking owing to political and economic uncertainty.

Lacklustre week drags PSX downward

The market extended losses as selling pressure continued to dominate as investors remained concerned over Moody’s downgrading five of Pakistan’s major banks. Investors took a cautious stance and resorted to value buying which led to some recovery during Wednesday’s session.

The bourse bounced back on Thursday and cushioned the dip amid renewed interest in selected stocks of the technology sector.

The index reversed its direction once again on the last trading session as a lack of positive triggers kept market players away from healthy participation, providing bears with an opportunity to dominate most of the trading session.

Other major developments during the week were: PSO wins arbitration case against Gunvor over LNG payments, Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) registered 2,434 new firms in September, gas condensate discovered in Sanghar, inflation rate at 19.9%, IMF projected 3.5% growth for 2023.

Meanwhile, foreign buying continued this week, clocking in at $12.3 million against a net buy of $4.7 million recorded last week. Buying was witnessed in technology ($12.4 million), power (0.8 million), and cement ($0.3 million).

On the domestic front, major selling was reported by broker proprietary trading ($4.8 million), followed by companies’ finance institutions ($4 million).

During the week under review, average volumes clocked in at 267 million shares (down by 39% week-on-week), while the average value traded settled at $44 million (down by 7% week-on-week).

Major gainers and losers of the week

Sector-wise negative contributions came from technology and communication (-117 points), commercial banks (-48 points), tobacco (-32 points), cement (-15 points), and engineering (-12 points)

On the flip side, positive contributions came from exploration and production (+46 points) and refinery (+22 points)

Scrip-wise major losers were TRG Pakistan (-207 points), Pakistan Tobacco Company (-32 points), Meezan Bank (-24 points), Engro Fertiliser (-19 points), and Engro Corporation (-18 points).

Meanwhile, gainers were Systems Limited (+83 points), Pakistan Oilfields (+20 points), Lotte Chemical (+17 points), Oil and Gas Development Company (+16 points), and Nestle Pakistan (+15 points).

Outlook for next week

A report from Arif Habib Limited stated that the market is expected to remain positive in the upcoming week,” given the anticipation of FATF decision over the expected exit of Pakistan from the grey list.”

“Moreover, with the ongoing result season, certain sectors and scrips are expected to stay under the limelight given the anticipation of robust results,” it said.

“The KSE-100 is currently trading at a PER of 4.1x (2023) compared to the Asia-Pacific regional average of 12x while offering a dividend yield of 9.8% versus 3% offered by the region,” the brokerage house stated.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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