Investors remained on the sidelines in outgoing week.
Moody’s decision, rupee-dollar party played on investors’ minds.
KSE-100 index declined 137 points or 0.3%.
KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed tepid trading in the outgoing week as Moody’s rating kept market participants mostly on the sidelines.
Moody’s decision, fluctuating rupee-dollar parity, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves played on investors’ minds during the week. Resultantly, the KSE-100 index declined 137 points or 0.3% to end the week at 41,948.50 points.
The market commenced the week on a positive note as investors’ interest revived on optimism that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) would maintain a status quo in its monetary policy announcement.
Investors’ interest was also fuelled by a statement from Finance Minister Ishaq Dar that Pakistan would not seek debt restructuring from the Paris Club and would meet all multi-lateral and international payment obligations.
The stock market, however, reversed the trend on Tuesday as investors opted for profit-booking owing to political and economic uncertainty.
The market extended losses as selling pressure continued to dominate as investors remained concerned over Moody’s downgrading five of Pakistan’s major banks. Investors took a cautious stance and resorted to value buying which led to some recovery during Wednesday’s session.
The bourse bounced back on Thursday and cushioned the dip amid renewed interest in selected stocks of the technology sector.
The index reversed its direction once again on the last trading session as a lack of positive triggers kept market players away from healthy participation, providing bears with an opportunity to dominate most of the trading session.
Other major developments during the week were: PSO wins arbitration case against Gunvor over LNG payments, Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) registered 2,434 new firms in September, gas condensate discovered in Sanghar, inflation rate at 19.9%, IMF projected 3.5% growth for 2023.
Meanwhile, foreign buying continued this week, clocking in at $12.3 million against a net buy of $4.7 million recorded last week. Buying was witnessed in technology ($12.4 million), power (0.8 million), and cement ($0.3 million).
On the domestic front, major selling was reported by broker proprietary trading ($4.8 million), followed by companies’ finance institutions ($4 million).
During the week under review, average volumes clocked in at 267 million shares (down by 39% week-on-week), while the average value traded settled at $44 million (down by 7% week-on-week).
Major gainers and losers of the week
Sector-wise negative contributions came from technology and communication (-117 points), commercial banks (-48 points), tobacco (-32 points), cement (-15 points), and engineering (-12 points)
On the flip side, positive contributions came from exploration and production (+46 points) and refinery (+22 points)
Scrip-wise major losers were TRG Pakistan (-207 points), Pakistan Tobacco Company (-32 points), Meezan Bank (-24 points), Engro Fertiliser (-19 points), and Engro Corporation (-18 points).
Meanwhile, gainers were Systems Limited (+83 points), Pakistan Oilfields (+20 points), Lotte Chemical (+17 points), Oil and Gas Development Company (+16 points), and Nestle Pakistan (+15 points).
Outlook for next week
A report from Arif Habib Limited stated that the market is expected to remain positive in the upcoming week,” given the anticipation of FATF decision over the expected exit of Pakistan from the grey list.”
“Moreover, with the ongoing result season, certain sectors and scrips are expected to stay under the limelight given the anticipation of robust results,” it said.
“The KSE-100 is currently trading at a PER of 4.1x (2023) compared to the Asia-Pacific regional average of 12x while offering a dividend yield of 9.8% versus 3% offered by the region,” the brokerage house stated.
In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.
By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.
The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.
When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.
Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.
One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.
By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.
Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.
The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.
Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.
The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.
The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.
On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.
According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.
Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.
The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.
In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.
Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).
In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.
In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.
He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.