The South Asian nation Sri Lanka defaulted in May 2022 for the first time on its debt. Its government was given an ultimatum of 30 days to cover $78 million in unpaid interest, however, it failed to do so.
This raises an important question: Which other countries are at risk of default in 2022?
According to Visual Capitalist via Bloomberg, here are countries with a higher risk of default this year. Pakistan is also included in the list.
The Sovereign Debt Vulnerability Ranking — a composite measure of a country’s default risk — by Bloomberg is based on four metrics; government bond yields (the weighted-average yield of the country’s dollar bonds), five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread, interest expense as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), and government debt as a percentage of GDP.
In order to have a better understanding, let’s take a look at Ukraine and El Salvador.
Ukraine’s Bond Yields
Due to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the former has a higher risk of default. If Russia takes control of the country, Ukraine might not be able to repay its existing debt obligations.
This has caused a sell-off of Ukrainian government bonds, resulting in a decrease in their value to 30 cents on the dollar. This means that a bond could be purchased for $30, having a face value of $100.
The average yield on these bonds has increased to 60.4% as it moves in the opposite direction of the price. “As a point of comparison, the yield on a US 10-year government bond is currently 2.9%,” according to Visual Capitalist.
CDS Spread
In the case of a default, a lender can get insurance with the help of credit default swaps (CDS), which are a type of financial contract.
A CDS seller represents a third party between the lender (investors) and borrower (in this case, governments).
The buyer pays a fee, which is also known as spread in return. It is expressed in basis points (bps). The investor has to pay $3 per year if a CDS has a spread of 300 bps (3%) to insure $100 in debt.
If this is applied to Ukraine’s five-year CDS spread of 10,856 bps (108.56%), the investor would have to pay $108.56 yearly to insure $100 in debt, suggesting the market’s less faith in Ukraine to prevent itself from being defaulted.
El Salvador’s higher ranking
As compared to Ukraine, El Salvador has a higher ranking due to its “larger interest expense and total government debt.”
The data shows that El Salvador’s annual interest payments are equal to 4.9% of its GDP, making it higher. Meanwhile, the US has a federal interest cost of about 1.6% of GDP in 2020.
El Salvador has outstanding debts of about 82.6% of GDP when totalled which is high by historical standards.
“The next date to watch will be January 2023, as this is when the country’s $800 million sovereign bond reaches maturity,” per the Visual Capitalist.
Research says that El Salvador would face significant but temporary negative effects if it defaults.
The Federal Board of Revenue has effectively executed significant reforms in the past year, enhancing tax administration, compliance, and digital transformation under the leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The FBR implemented AI-driven risk identification algorithms to improve tax audits and introduced a customer relationship management dashboard for real-time compliance monitoring. Moreover, AI-driven Customs Intelligence and digital invoicing systems have transformed tax collection and customs operations. The implementation of faceless customs assessment has markedly diminished clearance waits, optimizing international trade. The unified sales tax return has streamlined the tax filing procedure, while the continuous advancement of a tier-3 data center seeks to enhance data security and AI-driven surveillance. To enhance transparency, the FBR digitized its litigation management system for faster dispute resolution.
The government has designated Bilal Bin Saqib MBE as the Chief Adviser to the Finance Minister on the Pakistan Crypto Council to reinforce Pakistan’s dedication to technological advancement while implementing effective policy measures that bolster the national economy, facilitate digital transformation, and ensure a secure, transparent financial system for all.
A press release from the finance ministry on Wednesday states that Bilal Bin Saqib, acknowledged by Forbes, is a Web3 investor, strategic advisor, and thought leader in the blockchain sector.
Saqib was featured in Forbes’ 30 Under 30 list and has received recognition from King Charles III, the late Queen Elizabeth II, and the Mayor of London for his contributions to the community.
He received the 1632nd Points of Light Award, conferred by the British Prime Minister to acknowledge change-makers in the nation. He was awarded the MBE (Member of the British Empire) in 2023 for his contributions to the National Health Service in the UK.
In this pivotal role as the Chief Adviser to the Finance Minister on the Pakistan Crypto Council, Saqib will lend his great knowledge and experience to Pakistan’s efforts to integrate cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies into its financial ecosystem while ensuring the development of a robust regulatory framework for digital assets in alignment with global best practices.
Furthermore, he will counsel the Finance Ministry on investigating the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to improve governmental efficiency, refine decision-making processes, and foster innovation in public sector operations.
Saqib’s nomination signifies a pivotal advancement in Pakistan’s dedication to harnessing the revolutionary capabilities of digital currencies, safeguarding financial security, alleviating risks, and accurately evaluating the influence of cryptocurrencies on the nation’s economy.
Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb endorsed the appointment of Bilal Bin Saqib, emphasizing the significant impact his extensive expertise and innovative vision are expected to have on shaping Pakistan’s stance in the swiftly advancing digital economy.
Edible oils, such as cooking and mustard oils, experienced a significant price increase, with the price of open edible oil escalating from Rs480 to Rs500 per litre.
A local merchant reported, “Mustard oil has risen in price by Rs20 per litre, now costing Rs520.”
Different brands of cooking oil were noted to be priced variably in Karachi’s markets, indicative of the prevailing inflationary trend in food products.
The escalation in edible oil prices corresponded with the surging costs of fruits, prompting consumer apprehension around heightened expenditures during Ramadan.