Business

Markets put money on ECB rate hike amid rising European bond yields

Published

1 year ago

Farwa

Traders boosted bets for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike this week, sending Italy’s 10-year bond yield to a six-month high after a Reuters report that the central bank believes inflation will continue to hover around 3% next year.

The day’s main macroeconomic event for global markets is US inflation data released at 1230 GMT which will help shape the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this month.

But there is plenty happening in Europe too, and traders are also bracing for the ECB’s meeting on Thursday – current market pricing reflects roughly a 75% chance the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points, up from around a 40% chance on Monday and just 25% a week ago.

A further rate hike this year is now fully priced in.

The rise in rate expectations on Wednesday was, said Jan von Gerich chief analyst at Nordea, a result of a Reuters report late on Tuesday which said, citing a source with direct knowledge of the matter, the ECB’s quarterly projections will put inflation north of 3% in 2024.

That would support the case for a further rate increase, though the source said the rate decision was still a close call.

A pick up in market expectations also makes a rate hike more likely.

“The ECB isn’t as sensitive to market expectations as say the Fed is, but it is not totally insensitive so this kind of pricing on the margin increases the odds of hiking,” von Gerich said.

“It isn’t conclusive, but they do look at market expectations and worry that if they disappoint too much then you could see rates fall, and financing conditions ease, which they don’t want to at the moment.”

The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond hit 4.452% in early trading, its highest since mid-March, and was last at 4.44%, up 3 basis points (bps) on the day.

Germany’s 10-year yield rose 2.5 bps at 2.67%, meaning that the spread between the German and Italian 10-year yields touched 178 bps, its widest since June.

Bond yields move inversely to prices and higher rates from the ECB would typically weigh more heavily on the more-indebted European periphery.

Some market participants expect an acceleration of the ECB’s quantitative tightening measures – in which the central bank reduces its bond portfolio – to hurt peripheral bond prices.

Shorter-dated yields, more sensitive to interest rate expectations, also rose. Germany’s two-year yield was up 3 bps at 3.16%, having briefly touched a one-month high, and Italy’s two-year yield touched a two-month high and was last 7 bps higher at 3.9%.

Business

Remittances Increase 25.2% in January 2025: $3.0 Billion Inflow

Published

14 hours ago

Farwa

Remittances from Pakistani workers totalled US$3.0 billion in January 2025, representing a 25.2% increase from the previous year.

The cumulative remittances for July through January of FY25 were 20.8 billion dollars, up 31.7 percent from 15.8 billion dollars during the same period in FY24.

In January 2025, the United States of America contributed 298.5 million dollars, the United Kingdom contributed 443.6 million dollars, the United Arab Emirates contributed 621.7 million dollars, and Saudi Arabia contributed 728.3 million dollars.

Business

In January, Pakistan’s remittances rose by 25%.

Published

15 hours ago

Farwa

In January 2025, Pakistan had a notable 25% growth in domestic remittances, with inflows hitting a record $3 billion for the month.

In a post on X, Khurram Shahzad, advisor to the Federal Finance Minister, revealed the most recent data, showing a sharp increase in remittances. The overall amount of remittance inflows from July 2024 to January 2025 was $20.8 billion, which is a 32% increase from the previous year.

According to official documents, the federal government’s non-tax revenue increased by Rs1,623 billion during the first half of the current fiscal year, from July to December, to Rs3,602 billion, up from Rs1,979 billion during the same period last fiscal year. The petroleum levy accounted for a significant portion of the increase, collecting an additional Rs76.64 billion, bringing the total petroleum levy revenue to Rs549 billion, up from Rs472.77 billion during the same period last year. Shahzad described the increase in remittances as a positive development for Pakistan’s economy and external accounts, and he projected that if this trend continues, annual remittances could surpass $35 billion by the end of the fiscal year.

Significant non-tax revenue was also generated by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which reported a profit of Rs2,500 billion from July to December, a substantial increase from Rs972 billion during the same period the previous year.

Business

It is anticipated that the cost of electricity will drop by Rs2 per unit.

Published

15 hours ago

Farwa

In an effort to help consumers, the government is attempting to lower electricity costs nationwide.

A task team has started negotiating with 45 more power facilities to reduce electricity rates, according to Ministry of Energy sources.

According to the plan, the profit margin of about 25 state-owned power plants will be cut from 19% to 13%, which will result in an electricity tariff drop of 50 paisa per unit. Moreover, rather than total production capacity, these power plants will now get compensation based on actual electricity generation.

It is anticipated that these actions will result in a Rs2 per unit drop in the overall electricity bill. The task force’s suggestions will probably be brought up for approval in the upcoming cabinet meeting.