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Monetary policy: SBP jacks up interest rate to 15% — highest since November 2008

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  • SBP has cumulatively increased the rate by 800 basis points since Sept 2021 to control inflation.
  • MPC to meet next on August 22; will carefully monitor developments affecting prospects for inflation.
  • Central bank expects rate hike to help prevent de-anchoring of inflation expectations, provide support to rupee.

KARACHI: In line with the market expectation, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday aggressively raised the benchmark interest rate by a massive 125 basis points to 15% — the highest since November 2008.

The rate hike came as the coalition government is trying hard to revive the much-awaited International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the resumption of a $6-billion loan programme that had been stalled since early April.

The central bank has cumulatively increased the rate by 800 basis points since September 2021 to control inflation and narrow the current account deficit.

During today’s meeting, under the chair of Acting Governor Dr Murtaza Syed, it was decided that the interest rates on export finance scheme (EFS) and long-term financing facility (LTFF) loans are now being linked to the policy rate to strengthen monetary policy transmission while continuing to incentivise exports by presently offering a discount of 500 basis points relative to the policy rate.

According to a statement issued by the central bank, this combined action continues the monetary tightening underway since last September, “which is aimed at ensuring a soft landing of the economy amid an exceptionally challenging and uncertain global environment.”

“It should help cool economic activity, prevent a de-anchoring of inflation expectations and provide support to the rupee in the wake of multi-year high inflation and record imports,” the statement read.

Three major developments since May

The central bank noted that since the last meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee noted “three encouraging developments”.

  • The unsustainable energy subsidy package was reversed and an FY23 budget centered on strong fiscal consolidation was passed which has paved the way for completion of the on-going review of IMF programme
  • A $2.3 billion commercial loan from China helped provide support to foreign exchange reserves, which had been falling since January due to current account pressures, external debt repayments and paucity of fresh foreign inflows
  • Economic activity remained robust, with the momentum of the last two years of near 6% growth carrying into the start of FY23.

However, the MPC noted that several adverse developments overshadowed this aforementioned positive news.

It stated that globally, inflation is at multi-decade highs in most countries and central banks are responding aggressively, leading to depreciation pressure on most emerging market currencies. While domestically, as energy subsidies were reversed, both headline and core inflation increased significantly in June, rising to a 14-year high.

‘Pakistan facing large negative income shock’

“Against this challenging backdrop, the MPC noted the importance of strong, timely and credible policy actions to moderate domestic demand, prevent a compounding of inflationary pressures and reduce risks to external stability,” the statement read.

The MPC members stated that like most of the world, “Pakistan is facing a large negative income shock from high inflation and necessary but difficult increases in utility prices and taxes.”

The central bank believes that without decisive macroeconomic adjustments, there is a significant risk of substantially worse outcomes that would compromise price stability, financial stability and growth.

Hinting at further monetary policy tightening in the next meeting scheduled to be held on August 22, the MPC noted that the runaway inflation and foreign exchange reserves depletion would require sudden and aggressive tightening actions later that would be significant “more disruptive for economic activity and employment.”

“Adjustment is difficult but necessary in Pakistan, as it is all over the world. However, in the interest of social stability, the burden of this adjustment must be shared equitably across the population, by ensuring that the relatively well-off absorb most of the increase in utility prices and taxes while well-targeted and adequate assistance is provided to the more vulnerable,” it stated.

“The MPC will continue to carefully monitor developments affecting medium-term prospects for inflation, financial stability, and growth and will take appropriate action to safeguard them,” the central bank said.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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