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November inflation to spike on gas price adjustment, dashing slowdown hopes

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  • CPI likely to rise to 28.6-29.6% year-on-year in Nov.
  • Inflation rate could register 2.1% month-on-month jump.
  • Weekly SPI on Nov 16 showed 480% surge in gas prices.

KARACHI: Inflation is expected to surge in November, primarily due to a massive hike in gas prices, according to brokerage reports released on Wednesday.

The consumer price index (CPI), which measures changes in the prices of goods and services, is likely to rise to 28.6-29.6% year-on-year in November, up from 26.9% in October.

A report by brokerage firm Insight Securities predicts that the inflation rate will register a 2.1% month-on-month jump, defying earlier expectations of a gradual slowdown from September onwards. Optimus Capital Management estimates that the CPI will increase by 2.9% month-on-month, primarily driven by an 11.6% jump in the housing index due to gas price revision and a 1.6% increase in the food index.

The primary cause behind the expected spike in November inflation is the adjustment of recently imposed fixed charges within the gas tariff structure. The weekly sensitive price index (SPI) inflation released on November 16 showed an astonishing 480% surge in gas prices.

However, a slight respite is expected from a 4.0% decrease in the transport index due to lower average fuel prices in November. The impact of the gas price hike was partially mitigated by the decline in fuel prices and the month-on-month fall in the food commodity adjustment (FCA).

Food inflation is attributed to a sharp increase in the prices of perishable items such as onions, tomatoes, potatoes, and eggs, as well as tea. Despite an increase in supply from imports, wheat prices still rose month-on-month, while sugar and cooking oil showed a significant decline during this period, based on weekly SPI data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

The recently implemented axle load regime, which limits the weight of goods transported by trucks, could put some pressure on the price levels of goods.

The higher October fuel cost adjustment (FCA) demanded at Rs3.5 per kilowatt hour (to be applicable in December) on electricity charges and a second-round impact of gas price increase could keep inflation under pressure. However, the base effect during the second half of the fiscal year is likely to help absorb the impact.

Commodity and energy prices, along with the exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar, will remain important factors in keeping the CPI under control.

The reports projected the average inflation for the first five months of the fiscal year 2023/24 (July-June) to be 28.5%, compared with 25.2% in the same period last year and with an estimated ending at 19.4% year-on-year in June 2024.

They predicted that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is likely to maintain the interest rate in its upcoming monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting due to the higher-than-estimated inflation in November. However, the SBP could opt to initiate an easing cycle in the first quarter of 2024, given the high base effect in the second half of the fiscal year.

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Malir Industrial Park is introduced by SIFC.

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The establishment of “industrial parks” by the Pakistan Economic Zone Development and Management Company and the Special Investment Facilitation Council aims to attract investors and stimulate the economy.

First up is the Malir Industrial Park, which gives companies access to important trade and transportation channels. This park will be different from heavy industry parks in that it will concentrate on small industries and diverse industrial offices. Among Karachi’s industrial zones, it would be noteworthy for providing security and necessary infrastructure.

In order to lower unemployment, the initiative intends to generate more than 200,000 jobs in the first five years. To increase the advantages of the program, the Korangi Association of Trade and Industry will become a member of the Malir Industrial Park Advisory Council.

The park will have easy access to Karachi Port and Jinnah International Airport due to its strategic location at the convergence of key highways, such as the National Highway and Malir Motorway. This would guarantee effective access to both domestic and foreign markets.

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The Saudi crown prince and PM Sharif promise to increase trade and investment relations.

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He emphasised how closely Saudi Vision 2030 matches Pakistan’s main strategic goals, strengthening the basis for both countries’ development.

In terms of trade, investment, and economic development, both leaders reaffirmed their dedication to strengthening bilateral cooperation.

A recent visit by a high-level Saudi delegation headed by the Saudi Investment Minister, during which a number of Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were signed to strengthen the economic partnership, was mentioned by Prime Minister Sharif.

Along with talking about the economy, the two leaders acknowledged the serious damage caused by Israel’s continuous aggression in the area and voiced their profound worry about it.

Peace in Gaza is linked to global progress: PM

In his earlier speech to the 8th Future Investment Initiative (FII), Prime Minister Shehbaz emphasised the catastrophic situation in Gaza and stressed that the world would find it difficult to meet its developmental goals unless there was an immediate end to the violence.

Shehbaz, the Saudi prime minister

With the topic “Infinite Horizons: Investing Today, Shaping Tomorrow,” the FII brought together prominent individuals to discuss investments in important fields such as robots, artificial intelligence, education, energy, finance, healthcare, and sustainability.

Pakistan’s worries over the worsening situation in Gaza were highlighted by PM Sharif’s direct remarks, which also highlighted the necessity of international cooperation in fostering peace.

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Task Force for FBR Digitization Established: Automated Supply Chain System Design

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A 10-member Task Force has been formed by the government to digitize the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) in partnership with the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC).

Improving FBR’s systems and completely digitizing its operations are part of the Task Force’s mandate. Policy interventions, data automation, software installation, and collaboration with provincial revenue authorities are among the main goals.

Together with developing a track-and-trace system through integrated automation, the task force will also establish an Automated Supply Chain System for distributors and wholesalers.

Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited would become a stand-alone IT bureau for planning and data preparation.

In order to create a unified national tax strategy, the project seeks to maximize revenue collection, increase transparency, and simplify Pakistan’s tax system while encouraging cooperation between the federal and provincial tax authorities.

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