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Pakistan expects CAD to decline by $2bn, informs IMF of projection

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  • Govt expects imports to decline in remaining period of FY24.
  • Finance ministry expects improvement in overall trade balance.
  • Pakistan’s external financing requirements stand at $28 billion.

ISLAMABAD: While not moving away from the envisaged macroeconomic framework, Pakistan has communicated to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it expects the Current Account Deficit (CAD) to decline by $2 billion to end at $4.5 billion compared to the $6.5 billion projected till the end of June 2024, reported The News on Tuesday.

The downward projection of CAD indicated that the government was expecting that imports would continue to decline in the remaining period of the current fiscal year.

Amid difficulties in materialising the external dollar inflows up to the desired mark, Pakistani authorities have no other option but to reduce the CAD to avert a balance of payment crisis.

Pakistan’s external financing requirements stood at $28 billion — foreign debt servicing of $23.5 billion and CAD projection of $4.5 billion.

After the signing of the IMF agreement under the $3 billion Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) programme, the forex reserves saw an improvement in July 2023, but in the last two months, the pace of external loans and grants has slowed down. Now the authorities are expecting that completion of the first review of the IMF programme would push up the dollar inflows from multilateral and bilateral creditors.

Economist Dr Hafiz A Pasha estimates that the external financing gap may be around $6 to $7 billion for the current fiscal year and the completion of the IMF review would help Islamabad to reduce this gap.

“The current account deficit stood at $0.947 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, so overall the CAD is expected to be restricted at $4.5 billion against earlier projections of $6.5 billion for FY24,” sources told The News on Monday.

These projections have been shared with the visiting IMF’s review mission which is engaged with Pakistani authorities under the $3 billion SBA programme.

The government projects that the exports would be around $30.843 billion while imports would stand at $64.7 billion in the current fiscal year.

The finance ministry’s projections of seeing an improvement in the overall trade balance are based on its hope of increasing exports of rice in the wake of increased production of 2 million tonnes of rice and 5 million additional bales of cotton. However, the sources said that the import bill might be reduced from a projected amount of $64.7 billion to $58 billion for the current fiscal year.

There is another risk that the remittances might also witness a reduction on account of the envisaged target as it might stand at less than $30 billion against the official projection of $32.889 billion for the current fiscal year.

The government expects that the GDP growth rate may hover around 3.5% after improved performance of the agriculture sector and large-scale manufacturing sector growth of around 3%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is expected to hover around 21% on average in the current fiscal year. The reduction in imports of commodities, improved exchange rate and better supply of goods would help to reduce inflation on a monthly basis in the remaining period of the current fiscal year.

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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