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Pakistan moves closer to securing IMF deal as UAE likely to commit funds soon

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  • IMF likely to get written guarantee from UAE this week.
  • Matters have been finalised with UAE authorities, sources say.
  • Finance secretary will inform IMF officials about the development.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is moving closer to securing its loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as United Arab Emirates (UAE) is likely to assure the global lender that it will provide a $1 billion financing to help the nation avoid a default by this week, Geo News reported citing sources.

The sources said that the UAE is likely to provide a written guarantee regarding $1 billion financing this week and the news will be conveyed to the Fund officials by the Finance Secretary Hamed Yaqoob Sheikh during the annual meeting currently being held in Washington.

The IMF has asked Pakistan to secure assurances on external financing from friendly countries and multilateral partners to fund its balance of payment gap for this fiscal year, which ends in June.

Last week, Saudi Arabia pledged $2 billion and informed the IMF it will provide financing to Pakistan. However, the agreement with the IMF still rests on a similar commitment from the UAE for a $1 billion loan.

Well-placed sources in the Ministry of Finance confirmed that matters have been finalised with the UAE and as as soon Pakistan receives a written guarantee from the Washington-based lender will receive confirmation.

The development comes after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Finance Minister Ishaq Dar requested the UAE officials in order to complete the prerequisites of the Fund.

The cash-strapped nation of 220 million people is going through one of its biggest economic crises in history as it raised interest rates to an all-time high after consumer prices quickened to a fresh record. 

IMF lowers growth forecast

Meanwhile, IMF has cut its growth forecast for the country to 0.5% from the 2% estimate earlier as the nation faces a dollar shortage, leading to supply chain disruptions and companies stopping production.

The Fund is also assessing the coalition government’s proposed fuel discount that it plans for lower income groups by raising fuel prices for wealthy motorists; however, the finance minister had said that IMF has been provided with all required information.

Dar — who cancelled his trip to Washington where he was scheduled to hold in-person meetings with the IMF officials on the sidelines — has time and again claimed that the staff-level agreement with the Washington-based lender would be reached soon; however, the claims have proved to be futile.

Islamabad has been hosting an IMF mission since late January to negotiate a series of policy measures to secure $1.1 billion in funding for the cash-strapped economy, which is on the verge of collapse.

The funds are part of a $6.5 billion bailout package the IMF approved in 2019, which analysts say is critical for Pakistan to avert defaulting on external payment obligations.

The deal will also unlock other bilateral and multilateral financing avenues for Pakistan to shore up its foreign exchange reserves, which have fallen to four weeks’ worth of import cover, and help it steer out of a balance of payment crisis.

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E&P Companies Will Invest $5 Billion in Pakistan’s Petroleum Industry

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Over the next three years, local and foreign companies involved in Pakistan’s oil and gas exploration and production sector have shown a strong desire to invest more than $5 billion in the nation’s energy sector.

Recent changes to the Petroleum Policy and the implementation of an exclusive tight gas policy, which provide better incentives and a more investor-friendly regulatory framework, are credited with the increase in investor confidence.

These strategic changes are expected to boost domestic energy production, open up new avenues for growth, and draw large amounts of both domestic and foreign investment.

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With inflation slowing, the SBP is anticipated to lower the policy rate for the eighth time in a row.

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Businesspeople anticipate another reduction in the policy rate when the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases the updated rate.

The interest rate for the upcoming two months will be announced by the central bank. It is still unclear if the rate will stay the same or be lowered to reflect stakeholder expectations.

According to experts, the policy rate will be lowered in order to further boost the nation’s economic sector.

Interest rates may be lowered for the seventh time in a row if the inflation rate declines significantly more than anticipated.

In its last six sessions, the MPC had cut the policy rate by 10 percent. In January 2025, it decreased the rate by one percent to 12pc.

12PC POLICY RATE

In January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced cut in key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 12 percent from 13pc in line with expectations of the business community.

The policy rate, which had been at 22 percent since June 2024, was slashed by 1,000 basis points to 12 percent.

The SBP governor said the decision was taken with careful consideration. “Although inflation is expected to decline next month (February), core inflation remains a pressing concern,” he stated.

Ahmed highlighted strong remittance inflows and robust export growth as key factors supporting the current account.

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Bulls in the stock market are still going strong.

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As the bullish trend persisted on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday, the KSE-100 index soared beyond the 115,000 level.

The PSX continued its upward trend from the weekend, and the KSE-100 index gained 600 points, reaching 115,048 points in early trading.

The index closed at 114,398 points on Friday, up 685 points.

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