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Pakistan sees $3.8bn inflows in four months of FY24 amid forex crunch

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  • IMF inclined for a downward revision of forex reserves projection.
  • EAD in its figures does not include inflows from IMF.
  • EU and EIU yet to disburse any loan amount in current fiscal year.

ISLAMABAD: Amid dwindling official foreign exchange reserves despite signing a $3 billion IMF programme, Islamabad has secured $3.8 billion from multilateral and bilateral creditors in the first four months (July-October) period of the current fiscal year 2023-24, The News reported Tuesday.

The official figures of the Economic Affairs Division (EAD) did not incorporate the $1.2 billion disbursed by the IMF after approval of the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) program. So, the total dollar inflows in the shape of loans totalled $5 billion.

Now the IMF also seems inclined to downward revise the projection on account of gross foreign exchange reserves as it might witness a reduction from $12.9 billion to around $11.6 to $11.9 billion by the end of the ongoing financial year. 

The government has projected total foreign loans of $17.619 billion for the current fiscal year. 

In the official projection, the government had included $2.4 billion from the IMF for the current fiscal year. Although, Pakistan had signed a $3 billion SBA programme out of which $1.2 billion was so far disbursed by the Fund in August 2023. Now another IMF tranche of $700 million was expected to be disbursed after securing approval of the Fund’s executive board. 

In this scenario, all projections on account of Gross Official Reserves, Net International Reserves (NIR), Current Account Deficit and dollar inflows in the shape of foreign loans were changed for the current fiscal year.

According to the disbursement of foreign loans received by Pakistan showed that Pakistan received $318.1 million during October 2023. 

Islamabad had secured $3.52 billion in the first three months (July-September) period of the current fiscal year. Pakistan had obtained a guaranteed loan of $508.34 million. 

The disbursement of loans from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) stood at $87.5 million in the first four months of the current fiscal year. From AIIB, the total disbursed loan amount stood at $27.86 million. The European Union (EU) and EIU have not disbursed any loan amount so far in the current fiscal year. 

The World Bank’s IDA loan disbursement stood at $303.43 million and the IBRD loan of $67.28 million. The IFAD has disbursed $11.43 million, IsDB $100 million and OPEC Fund $0.01 million in the first four months of the current fiscal year.

The multilateral creditors in totality disbursed $597.49 million during the first four months of the current fiscal year. All bilateral creditors disbursed $435 million in the first four months out of which the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia disbursed $400 million for the oil facility during the July-Oct period of the current fiscal year.

The government also received $2 billion in the shape of time deposits from KSA in the current fiscal year. The government has not generated any international bonds so far in the current fiscal year. 

Minister for Finance Dr Shamshad Akhtar had already announced the shelving of the plan to raise $1.5 billion in international bonds. Pakistan received $306.26 million in the shape of Naya Pakistan Certificates in the first four months. 

The foreign exchange reserves held by the SBP had declined from $8.1 billion on July 23, 2023 to $7.3 billion on November 10, 2023 mainly because of repayments on external debt fronts during this period.

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The PSX has resumed operations, achieving a gain of 970 points.

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The optimistic close at the PSX was propelled by rumors preceding the International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board meeting on September 25, at which the approval of a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is expected, stated Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Commodities.

Strong economic indicators, such as increasing remittances, escalating exports, and a declining trade deficit, further bolstered investor confidence. Furthermore, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) commitment to a $2 billion yearly concessional loan until 2027, along with a robust rupee, significantly contributed to the market’s favorable performance, he stated.

Widespread purchasing at the PSX was noted among blue-chip stocks, with major players like Mari Petroleum (MARI), Engro Fertilizers (EFERT), United Bank Limited (UBL), Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL), and Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) recording substantial increases. According to Topline Securities, these stocks collectively resulted in a significant 682-point increase in the index.

Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) announced its fiscal year 2024 results, revealing a profits per share (EPS) of Rs 22.79 and a cash dividend of Rs 10 per share. This announcement contributed to the favorable sentiment in the market.

Trading volume surpassed 400.2 million shares, resulting in a total turnover of Rs15.9 billion. Worldcall Telecom Limited (WTL) topped the volume chart, transacting more than 32.2 million shares.

The Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) demonstrated a year-on-year (YoY) gain of 2.4% in July 2024. This expansion was propelled by multiple critical areas.

Tobacco experienced a significant increase of 90.2%, establishing it as the foremost contributor to the LSMI growth. Conversely, the automotive sector witnessed a substantial increase of 72.0%, indicating robust demand and output.

The transport equipment category experienced an 11.7% increase, signifying robust growth in the manufacturing of transport-related machinery and equipment. The other manufacturing sector experienced a gain of 10.7%, positively impacting the overall LSMI.

Nevertheless, not all industries exhibited strong performance. The leading decliner was the fabricated metal sector, which experienced an 18.4% decrease, signifying a contraction in metal product manufacturing. The electrical equipment industry experienced a substantial decline of 19.4%, indicative of reduced output levels.

In July 2024, the LSMI decreased by 2.1% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. This fall signifies a minor contraction in manufacturing operations relative to the preceding month, although the favorable year-on-year growth.

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As of August 2024, Pakistan’s current account is in surplus.

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Pakistan’s current account deficit was $161 million as of August 2023, according to figures from the central bank.

The current account deficit for the months of July and August of this year was $171 million, compared to $939 million for the same time in the previous fiscal year.

According to experts, the 40% rise in remittances is the primary cause of the current account surplus.

August saw US$ 2.9 billion in offshore remittances to Pakistan, according to experts.

Comparing July of this year to July of last year, total exports increased by 11.3% YoY to $3.01 billion. In contrast to the $3.08 billion in exports the month before, it decreased by 2.2%.

Compared to the $4.99 billion in imports recorded in July of previous year, total imports increased 12.2% YoY to $5.6 billion. Imports decreased by 1.3% over the previous month.

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Islamic Sukuk Bonds: Government Is Expected To Begin Bond Auction Next Week

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There is now more positive economic news for the people of Pakistan. The government is anticipated to begin the Sukuk Islamic Bond auction next week, after the central bank’s announcement of a large drop in the policy rate.

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