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Pakistani rupee’s massive gains against dollar to be short-lived: Goldman Sachs

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  • Market will continue to require a premium for Pakistani rupee ahead of elections, says analyst
  • Local currency staged remarkable comeback last month.
  • Appreciation of Pakistani rupee will likely be short-lived.
  • Risk remains amid possibility of unrest ahead of elections.

The recent massive appreciation in the value of Pakistani currency against the US dollar will fizzle out amid financing gaps, Bloomberg quoted Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as saying on Thursday.

The local currency staged a remarkable comeback from its record low earlier last month, becoming the world’s best-performing currency in September due to a crackdown launched by authorities against hoarders and currency smugglers.

“The recent appreciation of the Pakistani rupee will likely be short-lived, given soaring interest costs and only short-term arrangements with the International Monetary Fund and bilateral financing to support the external balance,” Goldman analysts led by Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a Wednesday report.

“The market will continue to require a premium for Pakistan’s rupee ahead of elections.”

The rupee has surged almost 9% since late August, making it the best performing currency globally after Afghanistan’s afghani, as authorities cracked down on the illegal dollar trade.

But risk remains as investors brace for possible unrest as the nation prepares to hold national elections in the first few months of next year.

Inflows from exports and remittances also remain muted, making the nation more dependent on foreign aid from countries in the Middle East as well as China for dollar flows.

An IMF team is scheduled to visit Pakistan next week to review the nation’s economic performance ahead of a loan disbursement as part of its $3 billion bailout programme.

Analysts believed that the rupee is likely to trade in a narrow range of 275-285 per dollar until at least the next tranche of the IMF’s loan programme is finalised.

According to dealers, the currency recently lost ground against the greenback as a result of an increase in demand for dollars from importers, while exporters’ dollar sales slowed as they expected the rupee to settle at its current levels in the coming days.

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SFD and Pakistan Sign Two Deals Totaling $1.61BLN

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Two agreements totaling $1.61 billion have been inked by Pakistan and the Saudi Fund for Development to improve their bilateral economic cooperation.

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Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign an MOU to strengthen their auditing industry collaboration.

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A spokesperson for the office of the Auditor-General of Pakistan (AGP) announced on Monday that the two countries have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to strengthen cooperation in public sector auditing through improved cooperation between audit institutions of both countries, as well as training programs and the exchange of trainers.

This comes as a group from Saudi Arabia’s General Court of Audit (GCA), headed by GCA President Dr. Hussam bin Abdulmohsen Alangari, arrived in Pakistan on Sunday for a four-day visit.

The agreement was signed during AGP Muhammad Ajmal Gondal’s meeting with the Saudi delegates, aiming to strengthen audit cooperation, enhance knowledge-sharing, and improve governance, transparency and accountability in government spending.

Public relations officer Muhammad Raza Irfan of the AGP’s office told Arab News that the deal will further advance bilateral collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in addition to enhancing professional ties between the two nations’ auditing institutions.

In a statement released from his office, AGP Gondal was cited as saying, “This collaboration marks a significant step toward fostering international cooperation in auditing.”

“The exchange of ideas and methodologies will undoubtedly strengthen our capacity to meet emerging challenges and set new benchmarks for public accountability.”

Discussions at Monday’s meeting focused on fostering closer ties between the Supreme Audit Institutions (SAIs) of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, sharing innovative audit methodologies, and planning collaborative initiatives for the future, according to the AGP office.

The two parties decided to increase their knowledge of theme, environmental, and impact audits as well as to exchange best practices in audit standards, performance audits, and citizen participation audits.

The statement added, “It also agreed to exchange trainers, address new auditing challenges, plan cooperative audits, including a performance audit on the oil and gas sector in 2025, and work together on training programs.”

Both sides reaffirmed their shared commitment to promoting transparency, accountability and excellence in public sector auditing.

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The government chooses to continue the PIA privatization process.

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The Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) privatization process will be restarted by the federal government, and expressions of interest would be requested within the month. Officials stated that the Prime Minister’s Committee on Privatization will convene to make the final decision.

Usman Bajwa, the secretary of the Privatization Commission, gave a briefing on the updated procedure to the National Assembly Standing Committee on Privatization. Additionally, he disclosed that airlines other than PIA are now able to compete with regional carriers thanks to IMF-approved aircraft tax concessions.

Farooq Sattar, the chairman of the privatization committee, underlined the importance of giving PIA workers at least five years of job security. Employee protection will continue to be a top priority and will be resolved prior to bidding, the Privatization Commission promised.

PIA’s liabilities totaling Rs650 billion have already been assumed by the government, and an additional Rs45 billion in outstanding debts must be paid before the privatization process can begin. As of the now, PIA has assets around Rs155 billion and liabilities worth Rs200 billion. It will be necessary for the new buyer to expand the fleet by 15 to 20 aircraft.

Additionally, the Privatization Committee has sought a timeline for the privatization of Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and Islamabad Electric Supply Companies. Officials stated that after the appointment of a financial advisor, the privatization process for these companies will accelerate.

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