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Pakistan’s debt, liabilities climb 23.7% in first quarter of FY23

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  • Total debt and liabilities climb by Rs12 trillion.
  • Total amount has reached a whopping Rs62.46 trillion.
  • Analysts cite delay in IMF tranche, rupee depreciation.

KARACHI: Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities have climbed by Rs12 trillion or 23.7% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, with analysts saying a delay in loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and devaluation of the rupee pushed the numbers up significantly.

The debt and liabilities stood at Rs62.46 trillion in July-September FY2023, compared with Rs50.49 trillion in the same period of last fiscal year, the central bank data showed on Wednesday.

The country’s debt rose 24.7% to Rs59.37 trillion, while total liabilities increased 23% to Rs3.56 trillion.

Fahad Rauf, head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities said the increase in the debt was mainly coming from external sources. “Mostly the IMF loan tranche of $1.2 billion and the impact of the rupee depreciation on overall external debt.”

The government’s domestic debt increased by 18.7% to Rs31.40 trillion. The foreign debt stood at Rs17.99 trillion in July-September FY2023, 30.2% up from a year earlier, according to the figures from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

Total external debt and liabilities jumped 33.4% to Rs28.94 trillion.

“Managing debt obligations is one of the biggest challenges facing the government,” said Mustafa Mustansir, head of research at Taurus Securities.

He said debt servicing was one of the reasons for the rise in the country’s debt, including the rising fiscal and external obligations. “The rupee depreciation affects external borrowing costs. Similarly, local borrowing costs rise when the policy rate increases.”

The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) data also showed that public debt fell to Rs49.4 trillion at the end of September from Rs49.5 trillion a month ago. The debt rose by Rs9.1 trillion or 22.7% year-on-year in September.

Pakistan’s five-year credit default swap (CDS), the cost of insuring exposure to the country’s sovereign debt, surged to 7,550 basis points (bps) on Tuesday, up 1,929 bps from Monday’s close, according to data from Arif Habib Limited.

During the current week, the government’s CDS level remained high on investors’ concerns that the country might not fulfil its commitment to repay creditors $1 billion because the Sukuk is set to mature on December 5, 2022.

“Pakistan will likely make payment on maturity as it is in the IMF programme,” according to an analyst.

Complications, concerns

However, there are concerns about the conclusion of the ninth review of the IMF’s bailout package.

Although the date has not yet been set, the IMF staff mission is anticipated in Islamabad by the end of the current month because the Fund needs Pakistan to make necessary modifications first.

The government is requesting some exceptions on performance criteria due to flood losses and the Fund’s insistence on maintaining the agreed tax-to-GDP ratio of at least 11%.

The delay in the IMF’s review is making foreign investors more anxious.

The situation seems more complicated as the country is facing many difficulties, including political unpredictability, threats to exports and remittances as a result of the global economic recession, and significant gross financing requirements in the years to come.

“These risks alongside rating downgrades have worsened the perception among investors. Hence the increase in default spreads,” the analysts said.

The country’s external debt and liabilities inched down to $126.9 billion as of September 30, 2022, from $127 billion a year ago.

Due to the repayment of foreign debt, the nation is anticipated to experience significant potential outflows during the current quarter, which might put pressure on both the foreign currency reserves and the currency.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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