Negotiations with IMF on any new bailout aren’t likely to start until after elections in October.
KARACHI: The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) criticism of Pakistan’s latest budget suggests chances are rising that the lender will opt not to deliver long-awaited aid before its bailout programme finishes at the end of June, Bloomberg reported.
“This would cause a severe dollar shortage in the first half of the fiscal year that starts in July, and possibly for longer — significantly raising the odds of default, Bloomberg economist Ankur Shukla said in the report, Pakistan Insight.
“It would also raise the prospect of much lower growth, and higher inflation and interest rates than we currently anticipate in fiscal 2024.”
The IMF criticised the budget for not taking enough steps to broaden the tax base and for including a tax amnesty.
The country’s foreign currency reserves currently stand at $4 billion. With at least around $900 million in debt that must be repaid this month, the reserves will fall by June-end unless the IMF aid comes.
Between July-December, Pakistan must repay an additional $4 billion, which cannot be rolled over. “With foreign exchange reserves likely below $4 billion at the start of fiscal 2024, the default seems highly likely,” the report said.
“Without any IMF programme, the options for fresh external funding will likely be very limited.”
It said that negotiations with the IMF on any new bailout aren’t likely to start until after elections in October. “Reaching an agreement will take time. Any actual aid disbursement from the IMF under a new programme will not happen until December.”
In the meantime, the country will need to conserve dollars by limiting import purchases — and keeping a current account balance in surplus— to have any hope of being able to meet its obligations.
It will also need to seek assistance from friendly nations to avert a default in the first half of fiscal 2024.
The report said Pakistan’s economy will likely be hit hard if the IMF doesn’t deliver aid by June-end.
The authorities will have to keep import restrictions in place. The State Bank of Pakistan will also likely raise rates above the current level of 21% to further curb demand for imports and conserve foreign exchange reserves, it added.
“Our base case currently is that the SBP will likely remain on hold through December (but that assumed the IMF aid coming in by June-end).”
Continued import restrictions and a weaker rupee would lead to higher inflation in fiscal 2024 than currently anticipated.
“We currently expect inflation to average 22%. Higher borrowing costs and restrictions on imports of raw materials would hit production further. Higher inflation would damp consumption,” it added.
The report said if IMF aid doesn’t come this month, the growth will be much weaker in fiscal 2024 than the current forecast of 2.5%.
“Higher rates will also increase the government’s debt servicing costs. The government currently plans to spend half of the fiscal 2024 budget on debt servicing.”
In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.
By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.
The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.
When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.
Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.
One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.
By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.
Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.
The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.
Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.
The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.
The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.
On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.
According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.
Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.
The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.
In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.
Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).
In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.
In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.
He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.