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Political uncertainty rattles Pakistan stocks, KSE-100 plummets over 1,200 points

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  • PSX witnessed bloodbath session as rising political temperature amid ongoing constitutional crisis raises alarm in stock market.
  • KSE-100 index seesaws as investors struggle to anticipate impact of actions being taken by authorities.
  • Analyst says it is “difficult” to comment on outlook of market.

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday came under intense selling pressure as the rising political drama rattled investors and pushed the benchmark index deep into the red with a drop of over 1,200 points.

The rising political temperature in the country amid the ongoing constitutional crisis raised alarm in major sectors of the economy as well as the stock market, which fell below 44,000-point mark.

President Arif Alvi, on the suggestion of Prime Minister Imran Khan, dissolved the National Assembly in an attempt to avoid voting on the no-confidence motion tabled against him [PM Khan].

The benchmark KSE-100 index seesawed as investors struggled to anticipate the impact of actions being taken by the authorities in the wake of the political turmoil.

At the close, the KSE-100 index plummeted 1,250.06 points, or 2.77%, to settle at 43,902.05 points.

Benchmark KSE-100 index intra-day trading curve. — PSX data portal
Benchmark KSE-100 index intra-day trading curve. — PSX data portal

Speaking to Geo.tv, BMA Capital Management Executive Director Saad Hashemy said that the political uncertainty is taking a toll on the market.

“Investors are always concerned about the economic issues being addressed,” he said, adding that till there is clarity on the political front the market will remain volatile on fears of economic concerns.

Regarding the market’s direction in the ongoing week, the analyst said that it is “difficult” to comment on the outlook. However, Hashemy added that the next two to three days are important as market players are closely eyeing how things are unfolding and developments during this period will give the market a direction.

A report from Arif Habib Limited noted that the benchmark KSE-100 index experienced a “blood bath” session throughout the day due to political unrest. 

“A significant decline was observed in the volumes of the market as well,” it stated, adding that across the board selling was witnessed. 

Main board volumes remained subdued. On the flip side, hefty volumes were recorded in the third-tier stocks.

Sectors contributing to the performance included banks (-324.5 points), cement (-252.9 points), technology and communications (-100.6 points), exploration and production (-93.5 points) and power (-69.2 points).

Shares of 305 were traded during the session. At the close of trading, 26 scrips closed in the green, 268 in the red, and 11 remained unchanged.

Overall trading volumes plunged to 170.48 million shares compared with Friday’s tally of 389.11 million. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs5.49 billion.

Telecard Limited was the volume leader with 17.39 million shares traded, losing Rs0.57 to close at Rs13.86. It was followed by K-Electric with 16.01 million shares traded, losing Rs0.18 to close at Rs2.92, and TPL Properties with 12.55 million shares traded, losing Rs1.56 to close at Rs19.26. 

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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