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Power sector circular debt tops Rs2.64tr

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  • Mounting debt becomes major concern for government.
  • Debt increases Rs394bn from July 2022 to May 2023.
  • It rises despite tariff hike of Rs7.9 per unit in July 2022.

ISLAMABAD: The power sector circular debt has reached a staggering amount of Rs2.646 trillion by the end of May 2023, registering an increase of Rs394 billion from July 2022 to May 2023, according to a report by the Ministry of Energy.

The mounting debt has become a major concern for the government and power sector policymakers, as it indicates monthly inefficiencies in the energy system, particularly in generation and distribution, resulting in an additional burden of Rs35.82 billion ($132.2 million) each month.

This comes despite the government’s implementation of a base tariff increase for electricity last July, following pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which demanded tariff measures to reduce the debt, rejecting the notion of bridging the gaps in power holding companies.

Despite a significant tariff hike of Rs7.9 per unit in July 2022, the circular debt continued to rise, as underlying structural issues in the sector remained unaddressed, leading to a substantial financial burden on loyal power consumers, amounting to billions of rupees every month.

The data reveals that the cumulative debt volume stood at Rs2.253 trillion by the end of the fiscal year 2021-22, which ballooned to Rs2.646 trillion by the end of May 2023.

Meanwhile, payables to power producers surged by Rs420 billion to Rs1.771 trillion during these 11 months. The state-owned generation companies (GENCOs) also saw their payables to fuel suppliers rise from Rs101 billion to Rs110 billion during the same period.

However, a positive development was observed in the amount of debt parked in Power Holding Limited (PHL), which decreased by Rs35 billion to Rs765 billion from the previous figure of Rs800 billion recorded at the end of June 2022.

The inefficiencies of power distribution companies (DISCOs) have emerged as a significant burden on the financial health of the power sector, primarily due to their high losses and low bill recoveries.

These shortcomings in power transmission and distribution are impeding the sustainable provision of energy services, resulting in elevated energy prices and amplified business costs.

During the eleven-month period, the power distribution companies (DISCOs) incurred losses and inefficiencies, along with non-recoveries of bills, contributing Rs374 billion to the circular debt, accounting for 95% of the total addition of Rs394 billion to the overall debt stock.

DISCOs’ losses and inefficiencies amounted to Rs125 billion, while low bill recoveries added Rs249 billion during July-May 2022-23.

The breakdown of circular debt additions further shows that Rs87 billion was attributed to the payment of interest to power producers on delayed payments, with the government currently owing Rs1.77 trillion to these generators.

Additionally, Rs58 billion was added to the circular debt due to interest payments to banks on the Rs765 billion parked in a power holding company.

To address this issue, the government has imposed a debt servicing surcharge of Rs3.23 per unit, passing on the cost of inefficiency to power consumers.

Furthermore, Rs171 billion was included in the circular debt due to delays in the recovery of generation costs through quarterly and monthly fuel charges adjustments. An additional Rs57 billion was added to the debt stock due to non-payment by K-Electric.

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E&P Companies Will Invest $5 Billion in Pakistan’s Petroleum Industry

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Over the next three years, local and foreign companies involved in Pakistan’s oil and gas exploration and production sector have shown a strong desire to invest more than $5 billion in the nation’s energy sector.

Recent changes to the Petroleum Policy and the implementation of an exclusive tight gas policy, which provide better incentives and a more investor-friendly regulatory framework, are credited with the increase in investor confidence.

These strategic changes are expected to boost domestic energy production, open up new avenues for growth, and draw large amounts of both domestic and foreign investment.

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With inflation slowing, the SBP is anticipated to lower the policy rate for the eighth time in a row.

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Businesspeople anticipate another reduction in the policy rate when the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases the updated rate.

The interest rate for the upcoming two months will be announced by the central bank. It is still unclear if the rate will stay the same or be lowered to reflect stakeholder expectations.

According to experts, the policy rate will be lowered in order to further boost the nation’s economic sector.

Interest rates may be lowered for the seventh time in a row if the inflation rate declines significantly more than anticipated.

In its last six sessions, the MPC had cut the policy rate by 10 percent. In January 2025, it decreased the rate by one percent to 12pc.

12PC POLICY RATE

In January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced cut in key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 12 percent from 13pc in line with expectations of the business community.

The policy rate, which had been at 22 percent since June 2024, was slashed by 1,000 basis points to 12 percent.

The SBP governor said the decision was taken with careful consideration. “Although inflation is expected to decline next month (February), core inflation remains a pressing concern,” he stated.

Ahmed highlighted strong remittance inflows and robust export growth as key factors supporting the current account.

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Bulls in the stock market are still going strong.

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As the bullish trend persisted on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday, the KSE-100 index soared beyond the 115,000 level.

The PSX continued its upward trend from the weekend, and the KSE-100 index gained 600 points, reaching 115,048 points in early trading.

The index closed at 114,398 points on Friday, up 685 points.

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