Investors cheer decline in international oil and coal prices, which fuelled a rally at the bourse.
KSE-100 index jump 3.7% — the highest weekly return since July 31, 2020.
The market witnessed an eventful week owing to political, economic developments.
KARACHI: The bulls maintained their dominancy at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) as the KSE-100 index jumped 3.7% — the highest weekly return since July 31, 2020. The KSE-100 index posted gains of 1,601 points to settle at 45,152.11 points.
Investors cheered the decline in international oil and coal prices, which fuelled a rally at the bourse.
The market witnessed an eventful week as both, the incumbent PTI government and the Opposition tried to gather allies amid a vote of a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan in the National Assembly.
The market largely digested the aforementioned development, coupled with a decline in international oil and coal prices (which garnered interest in the cement sector) bringing back the bulls, as concerns over inflation ceded.
Although some shuffling in support by minority parties in the mid-week added pressure, the market witnessed a noteworthy jump of over 1,000 points.
Market players ignored all negative cues, including historic low rupee value against the US dollar, inconclusive talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), depleting foreign exchange reserves and rising inflation which jumped to 12.7% in March.
Other major developments during the week were: Lucky Cement unveiled a solar project, Economic Coordination Committee approved local gas supply to two urea plants, Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) took up issues relating to Price Differential Claims (PDC), international freight equalisation margin (IFEM) with stakeholders, Mari Petroleum Company commenced production at Sachal gas processing complex, banks and DFIs approved Rs435 billion loans under Temporary Economic Refinance Facility (TERF), revealed SBP governor, Asian Development Bank signed $300 million loan deal for Pakistan’s market development programme, and Ghandhara commenced booking for newly-launched SUVs.
Meanwhile, foreign selling continued this week, clocking in at $15.55 million against a net sell of $4.12 million recorded last week. Selling was witnessed in commercial banks ($13.7 million), and fertiliser ($0.6 million).
On the domestic front, major buying was reported by banks/DFIs ($15.7 million), followed by individuals ($7.5 million).
During the week under review, average volumes clocked in at 310 million shares (up by 116% week-on-week), while average value trade settled at $44 million (up by 72% week-on-week).
Major gainers and losers of the week
Sector-wise positive contributions came from cement (+266 points), commercial banks (+241 points), technology and communication (+182 points), fertiliser (+152 points), and power generation and distribution (+111 points). On the flip side, negative contributions came from leather and tanneries (-9 points), and leasing companies (-1 point).
Scrip-wise major gainers were Systems Limited (+129 points), Lucky Cement (+129 points), Millat Tractors (+69 points), Hubco (+68 points) and Engro Corporation (+6 points). Meanwhile, major losers were Colgate-Palmolive (-16 points), Services Pakistan (-9 points), and Engro Fertiliser (-6 points).
Outlook for next week
A report from AHL predicted: “Political noise is expected to be pushed back after the vote of no-confidence against PM Imran Khan on Sunday.”
“Moreover, with Ukraine-Russia peace talks in progress, commodity prices are expected to further decline,” it said.
“The KSE-100 is currently trading at a PER of 4.9x (2022) compared to the Asia-Pacific regional average of 12.3x while offering a dividend yield of 8.4% versus 2.5% offered by the region,” the brokerage house stated.
Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.
Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.
The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.
A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.
In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.
He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.
Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.
Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.
Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.
The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.
In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.
Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.
A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.
Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.
With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.
The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.
Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.
It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.
The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.
According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.
A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills. With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls. One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future. This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.