Politics

‘PTI’s popularity is 70%’: How credible is the survey Imran Khan cited?

Published

1 year ago

Farwa

Former prime minister Imran Khan has made a bullish claim, insisting that a recent survey finds his political party’s popularity soaring to 70% in the Punjab province. But the survey Khan has cited, may be based on limited and arguably sketchy data, Geo Fact Check finds.

“Look at this graph,” the 70-year-old leader said, in a recorded video message on Wednesday, “The result of a survey. This tells you that right now the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is 70% popular.”

He repeated the claim in an interview with Al Jazeera on the same day.

The survey Khan is quoting was conducted by an Islamabad-based think tank, which goes by the name of Republic Policy.

As per the website of the think tank, the poll was conducted between May 10 and 15 in Punjab and its data found that 70% of the respondents it reached out to had a favourable opinion of Imran Khan.

While the former prime minister’s political rivals, Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz had a combined popularity of only 18%.

However, neither the think tank’s web portal nor its YouTube channel provides any additional information on the methodology used to collect the information, the cities and rural areas in Punjab it targeted or the sample size of the survey.

Tahir Maqsood Chheena, one of the heads of Republic Policy, told Geo Fact Check over the phone, that 10-15 students, who worked as volunteers, helped him complete the survey.

“I also called people myself,” he added, “People who I knew, as well as sent teams in the field.”

Even more astounding is the sample size of the survey.

Chheena alleged that the think tank interviewed 25 people in each union council of the province. Punjab has over 4,015 union councils, which would mean that the Republic Policy reached out to an astounding 100,375 people in just five days.

“I cannot tell you an exact number of the sample size,” Chheena said, “It could have been 90,000 or 100,000.”

When asked if his team identified people scientifically, based on their income and profession, amongst other things. He said: “We did nothing as such. You have the right to say we did not do it [the survey] properly. Next time we will keep this in mind.”

The Republic Policy conducted a similar survey in March, where it again found Imran Khan’s popularity to be 62% in Punjab, much ahead of all other politicians.

Bilal Gilani, the executive director at Gallup Pakistan, said that in order to determine the quality of a survey it is important to tell the readers the sample size and the profile of the respondents interviewed, in terms of profession etc.

“I saw this survey and it didn’t tell you the sample size or the profiles,” he told Geo Fact Check.

He added that as per the international code of ethics for polling organisations, they must transparently disclose all information about themselves, including what they do and how.

“Even these details are scarce about the Republic Policy,” he said.

What is Republic Policy?

The think tank was launched in November 2022, Chheena said. It is run by him and “some other friends” who are all retired civil servants. Chheena himself is a former police official.

On social media, most of its tweets are favourable to Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

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Requesting a ban on PTI’s public protest on September 21. LHC dismisses plea

Published

3 days ago

Farwa

The Lahore High Court’s three-member full bench made the verdict in response to attorney Nadeem Sarwar’s application.

Sarwar begged the LHC to prevent the PTI from holding a public gathering in Lahore tomorrow.

The LHC bench rejected the application on the grounds that the petitioner is not an “affected party.”

On Wednesday, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) filed a lawsuit in the Lahore High Court (LHC) challenging the arrests made in advance of the party event at Minar-e-Pakistan Lahore.

According to specifics, Sheikh Imtiaz and Yasir Gillani submitted the plea in an attempt to be protected from the detention of its leaders and workers in advance of the September 21 event.

The argument claimed that the Punjabi police are detaining party members in violation of their constitutional right to hold rallies.

In order to allow for a peaceful rally, the petitioners asked the court to order the authorities to cease making arrests.

September 21 is Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s scheduled rally day in Lahore.

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Doesn’t think this system would succeed, according to Ramesh Kumar of PPP

Published

4 days ago

Farwa

“Things seem in control, but they are not really,” he stated. “Shehbaz Sharif has been involved, but I don’t think he can change Pakistan’s destiny,” the PPP chief stated.

“This is the year of the judiciary, and legislation that pertains to it is also being scrutinized,” noted Ramesh Kumar.

“Due to disputes things not being seen to remain in control in the future,” stated the leader of the People’s Party.

“In the absence of internal stability, foreign investment will not come to the country,” he said. “I see things getting very bad and critical over the next three to four months,” Dr. Ramesh Kumar stated.

He said, “There are challenges, I see hardships ahead. Moody’s report comes or not, loans roll over happens or not.”

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Prior to the Lahore demonstration, PTI seeks LHC against arrests.

Published

5 days ago

Farwa

The petition requesting protection against the arrests of its workers and leaders prior to the event set for September 21 was submitted by Sheikh Imtiaz and Yasir Gillani.

The petition asserted that law enforcement is apprehending party members throughout Punjab, infringing upon their fundamental right to assemble for a rally.

The petitioners sought a court order to compel the authorities to cease arrests and for the march to occur peacefully.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is set to have a demonstration in Lahore on September 21.

Previously, multiple PTI MNAs, including party chairman Barrister Gohar, were apprehended by Islamabad police subsequent to the Sangjani demonstration in Islamabad.

Barrister Gohar and Sher Afzal Marwat were apprehended outside, while Zain Qureshi and Sheikh Waqas Akram were detained within the Parliament House.

Furthermore, law enforcement apprehended Owais Ahmed Chatha, Syed Shah Ahmed, Sahibzada Hamid Raza of the Sunni Ittehad Council, Yousaf Khan, Maulana Naseem Shah, and Ahmed Shah Khattak.

Sources indicated that Speaker of the National Assembly Ayaz Sadiq permitted the detention of PTI Members of the National Assembly outside the premises of the house. The situation occurred after police submitted a copy of the FIR filed against the PTI legislators for breaching SOPs during the public protest on September 8.

Furthermore, three complaints have been filed in Islamabad under the Peaceful Assembly and Public Order Bill, alleging breaches of the event’s NOC. The FIR identifies 28 individuals, including PTI officials Barrister Gohar Ali, Sher Afzal Marwat, Shoaib Shaheen, Omar Gul, Zartaj Gul, Aamir Mughal, Seemabia Tahir, and Raja Basharat.