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Rupee continues losing streak against dollar

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  • Massive devastation caused by floods worsens country’s economic crisis.
  • Rupee loses Rs1.64 against the US dollar in interbank market.
  • Rupee likely to continue its downward spiral this week, traders say.

The Pakistani rupee maintained its losing streak against the US dollar at the start of the new business week on Monday, as massive devastation caused by the floods continues to worsen the country’s economic crisis.

The local unit closed at Rs229.82 after losing Rs1.64 against the US dollar in the interbank market, as per the State Bank of Pakistan.

Traders say the Pakistani rupee is expected to continue its downward spiral against the dollar in the interbank market this week as lack of strong central bank intervention and no clear strategy to turn around the economy is depressing investors.

“Emerging currencies have suffered a lot due to the appreciation of the US dollar against the major currencies following relentless Federal Reserve rate hikes and increased safe-haven demand, but the Pakistani rupee’s sharp fall of more than 4% in the last six trading sessions has fuelled investor uncertainty,” said a foreign exchange trader.

The interbank market is tracking losses in the open market. The temporary hold on imports has shifted the problem to smuggling from Afghanistan against cash dollar payments, which has increased appetite for dollars in the open market. Other secondary factors are cash forex requirements for Dubai travellers, declaration of dollars from inbound passengers, severe accessibility issues for encashing in parts of all provinces.

The difference between the Interbank and open market is creating an incentive for the foreign currency accounts (FCY) to withdraw US dollars and sell into the open market. Whereas ultra-low interest on FCY accounts is not helping in attracting fresh deposits, according to the Tresmark’s note.

Analysts do see multiple opportunities for inflows from friendly countries, bilateral institutions, and sovereigns (in the shape of flood aid). There is also a high probability that the mandate with the IMF may be increased by about $2.5 billion. But the energy crisis in Europe is going to test and stretch the global financial markets.

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In interbank trade, the Pakistani rupee beats the US dollar.

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In the international exchange market, the US dollar has continued to weaken in relation to the Pakistani rupee.

The dollar fell to Rs278.10 from Rs278.17 at the beginning of interbank trading, according to currency dealers, a seven paisa loss.

In the meantime, there was a lot of turbulence in the stock market, but it recovered and moved into the positive zone. The KSE-100 index recovered momentum and reached 116,000 points after soaring 1,300 points.

Both currency and stock market swings, according to analysts, are a reflection of ongoing market adjustments and economic uncertainty.

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Phase II of CPEC: China-Pakistan Partnership Enters a New Era

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The cornerstone of economic cooperation between the two brothers and all-weather friends is still the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the initiative’s flagship project.

In contrast to reports of a slowdown, recent events indicate a renewed vigour and strategic emphasis on pushing the second phase of CPEC, known as CPEC Phase-2, according to the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives.

According to the statement, this crucial stage seeks to reshape the foundation of bilateral ties via increased cooperation, cutting-edge technology transfer, and revolutionary socioeconomic initiatives.

Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal is leading Pakistan’s participation in a number of high-profile gatherings in China, such as the 3rd Forum on China-Indian Ocean Region Development Cooperation in Kunming and the High-Level Seminar on CPEC-2 in Beijing.

His involvement demonstrates Pakistan’s commitment to reviving CPEC, resolving outstanding concerns, and developing a strong phase-2 roadmap that considers both countries’ long-term prosperity.

At the core of these interactions is China’s steadfast determination to turn CPEC into a strategic alliance that promotes development, progress, and connectivity.

Instead of being marginalised, CPEC is developing into a multifaceted framework with five main thematic corridors: the Opening-Up/Regional Connectivity Corridor, the Innovation Corridor, the Green Corridor, the Growth Corridor, and the Livelihood-Enhancing Corridor.

With the help of projects like these, the two countries will fortify their partnership, and CPEC phase-2 will become a model of global economic integration and collaboration that benefits not just China and Pakistan but the entire region.

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The inflation rate in Pakistan dropped to its lowest level.

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On December 2, core inflation as determined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly slowed, falling to 4.9% in November 2024 from 7.2 percent in October 2024.

The CPI-based inflation rate for the same month last year (November 2023) was 29.2%, according to PBS data.

Compared to a 1.2% gain in the prior month, it increased by 0.5% month over month in November 2024.

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