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Rupee slide slows down due to current account numbers

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  • Rupee closes at 220.95 after losing 0.03% in interbank market.
  • Analyst says rupee’s outlook has improved significantly.
  • Since the start of fiscal year 2022-23, rupee has lost Rs16.1.

KARACHI: The downward slide of the Pakistani rupee slowed on Thursday as the encouraging current account deficit number has lent some support to the local unit.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the local currency closed at Rs220.95 in the interbank market after depreciating registering a meagre loss of 0.03% against the greenback compared to Wednesday’s close of 220.88.

The market took positive cues from the current account deficit released a day earlier, which narrowed 37% to $2.2 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year due to lower imports and a rise in exports.

Commenting on the rupee’s movement, Pakistan-Kuwait Head of Research Samiullah Tariq said better than expected current account deficit number has improved the sentiment. “Slight movement was exhibited by the rupee,” he said.

Regarding the outlook, Tariq said it had improved significantly with a lower current account deficit number.

Since the start of the fiscal year 2022-23, the rupee has lost Rs16.1 or 7.85% against the US currency — which leaves its imprint on every corner of the global economy as it is the currency in which vital raw materials are bought and sold.

Dar rules out need for ‘steps’ to support rupee

A day earlier, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar ruled out the need for any particular supportive measures for the rupee, stoking optimism among traders that the ‘Darnomics’ will soon be able to crack the country’s monetary conundrum.

“The rupee has been heavily undervalued,” Dar said during an interview with Bloomberg in Washington, where he has been attending annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

“It is due to speculation — and some players in the market have been responsible for that,” he said.

“I thank those players in the market who have realised that that game at the cost of the national currency will not continue,” he asserted while highlighting that the exchange rate stabilised after traders learned he would take office.

Responding to a query if he was planning to take any “specific steps” to boost the rupee, he said: “I don’t think so. We don’t have the luxury of physically spending foreign exchange — it’s very scarce at the moment.”

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E&P Companies Will Invest $5 Billion in Pakistan’s Petroleum Industry

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Over the next three years, local and foreign companies involved in Pakistan’s oil and gas exploration and production sector have shown a strong desire to invest more than $5 billion in the nation’s energy sector.

Recent changes to the Petroleum Policy and the implementation of an exclusive tight gas policy, which provide better incentives and a more investor-friendly regulatory framework, are credited with the increase in investor confidence.

These strategic changes are expected to boost domestic energy production, open up new avenues for growth, and draw large amounts of both domestic and foreign investment.

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With inflation slowing, the SBP is anticipated to lower the policy rate for the eighth time in a row.

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Businesspeople anticipate another reduction in the policy rate when the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases the updated rate.

The interest rate for the upcoming two months will be announced by the central bank. It is still unclear if the rate will stay the same or be lowered to reflect stakeholder expectations.

According to experts, the policy rate will be lowered in order to further boost the nation’s economic sector.

Interest rates may be lowered for the seventh time in a row if the inflation rate declines significantly more than anticipated.

In its last six sessions, the MPC had cut the policy rate by 10 percent. In January 2025, it decreased the rate by one percent to 12pc.

12PC POLICY RATE

In January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced cut in key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 12 percent from 13pc in line with expectations of the business community.

The policy rate, which had been at 22 percent since June 2024, was slashed by 1,000 basis points to 12 percent.

The SBP governor said the decision was taken with careful consideration. “Although inflation is expected to decline next month (February), core inflation remains a pressing concern,” he stated.

Ahmed highlighted strong remittance inflows and robust export growth as key factors supporting the current account.

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Bulls in the stock market are still going strong.

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As the bullish trend persisted on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday, the KSE-100 index soared beyond the 115,000 level.

The PSX continued its upward trend from the weekend, and the KSE-100 index gained 600 points, reaching 115,048 points in early trading.

The index closed at 114,398 points on Friday, up 685 points.

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