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SBP projects GDP growth to remain between at 3-4%

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  • SBP says economy will grow at slower pace.
  • Economy had expanded by 6% during last fiscal year. 
  • SBP had already cut the economic growth to about 2%.

KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday projected that Pakistan’s economy will grow at a slower pace in the ongoing fiscal year compared to what was predicted a few months ago due to the catastrophic flood losses and falling demand, and as high interest rates, reported The News.

“Taking into account the destruction caused by floods and the policy focus on stabilisation, the SBP projects real GDP [Gross Domestic Product] growth below the previously announced range of 3-4% for FY-2023,” said the central bank in its annual report on the State of Pakistan’s Economy for the fiscal year 2021/22.

The economy had expanded by 6% during the last fiscal year. The SBP had already cut the economic growth to about 2% in its monetary policy statement in October.

The SBP’s growth projection was not only based on flood-related fallout on the economy, which is anticipated to affect the real economic activity through a variety of channels and have a considerable negative impact on output.

The country’s economy was given dim predictions by international financial institutions as well. The World Bank predicts that this fiscal year’s GDP growth would be 2.2%. The country’s GDP was projected by the International Monetary Fund to grow by 3.5% without taking the impacts of the floods into account.

The central bank’s economic report card for FY-2022 was released amid a balance of payments crisis. 

Pakistan severely needs external financing while the IMF’s ninth review has been pending since September. The forex reserves have fallen to $6.7 billion, hardly enough for a month’s worth of imports.

On inflation, the central bank has projected that the prices would go beyond the previously announced range of 18-20% during the ongoing fiscal. The consumer price index inflation is expected to be in the 21-23 range, according to its last monetary policy statement.

“Supply shocks in the form of the rollback of energy subsidies and resumption of fuel taxation and losses to agriculture produce caused by floods are likely to influence the inflation trajectory during the year. The elimination of subsidies and increase in fuel taxation triggered a sharp increase in inflation since June 2022, and the trend is likely to persist in FY2023,” it said in the report.

The coordinated fiscal and monetary policy stance is likely to reduce external account pressures in FY2023. 

The SBP sees the current account deficit to be around 3% of GDP. This improvement would be driven by a sizeable contraction in import growth. 

Likewise, global commodity prices have also started to soften after reaching multiyear peaks in FY-2022, which will reduce the pressure caused by a large price impact, it said.

However, the downturn in global demand may also weaken the growth of exports, and the tightening of policies in advanced economies would lessen the likelihood of capital flows to emerging and developing economies.

After seeing a surge in FY-2021, the workers’ remittances seem to have peaked in FY-2022 and are probably going to stay at a similar level in FY-2023, it noted.

“Alongside the IMF programme disbursements, the country is expected to receive external financing from multilateral and bilateral creditors that will considerably strengthen FX reserves position during FY2023.”

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The government has introduced a comprehensive strategy to enhance industrial investment.

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Authorities are poised to execute an ambitious investment promotion strategy through a collaborative initiative between the National Institute of Public Administration (NIPA) and the Pakistan Administrative Staff College, aiming for substantial enhancements in industrial investment and economic development.

The Special Investment Facilitation Center (SIFC) will be instrumental in this transformative drive by establishing “Business Facilitation Centers” aimed at optimizing investment processes and attracting both domestic and foreign capital.

Principal features of the comprehensive plan encompass:

  1. Forming collaborative working groups to augment domestic and international investment prospects
  2. Formulating a comprehensive strategy to eradicate obstacles to industrial development
  3. Formulating a novel model to tackle issues in the execution of industrial projects
  4. Striving to enhance Pakistan’s international business rating by 50 points
    Targeting $20 billion in foreign industrial investments within the next five years.

The approach prioritizes digital transformation to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the investment process. SIFC’s strategy emphasizes fostering a favorable atmosphere for investors by streamlining bureaucratic processes and offering strategic assistance.

National administration officers are conducting ongoing study to identify and mitigate potential investment barriers, while a specialized research group is formulating a comprehensive strategy to solve current hurdles in industrial growth.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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