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Why rupee tanked to historic low?

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The Pakistani rupee lost over Rs14, or 5%, against the US dollar in the outgoing week as the cash-strapped economy spirals deeper into a financial crisis amid challenges like looming debt default, shortage of dollars, unsustainable spending, uncontrolled inflation, and nine-year low foreign reserves.

Earlier during the week, the local unit advanced from a record low as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team began negotiations with Pakistan over the resumption of its $6.5 billion bailout programme; however, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s rather concerning comments regarding the ongoing parleys sent the currency market reeling.

The PM on Friday said the Fund review mission was giving Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and his team a “very tough time” in the talks —  expected to conclude on February 9.

Following his comments, the market panicked and the rupee devalued by 1.89% (or Rs5.22) to a new all-time low of Rs276.58 against the US dollar on Friday compared to Thursday’s close of Rs271.38.

Cumulatively, the rupee slumped 3.14% (or Rs8.69) in three days, compared to Wednesday’s close of Rs267.89 — the rupee recovered as crucial talks with the Washington-based lender resumed.

Tresmark, in its weekly currency commentary, noted that the rupee fell sharply last week from 264 per dollar to 278.50.

“It seemed to have stabilised around the 270 level, until the prime minister and finance minister spoke out,” the financial terminal for real-time market rates, news, charts, financial data, and technical analysis stated.

It added that when PM Shehbaz said that the IMF was imposing harsh conditions and when the finance czar said they were looking for philanthropists for billions of dollars, “traders assumed that the leadership was still looking for avenues other than IMF or that they would waste more time in negotiating with them.”

“However, in our assessment, the premier may have been only trying to prepare other stakeholders and vote base for harsh steps and measures,” Tresmark said, adding that another important factor behind the rupee’s downfall was the steep decline in total reserves of the country which are now at $8.7 billion (down by $712 million).

PM Shehbaz is battling to keep the economy afloat amid dollar shortages, and political tensions deepen.

Pakistan — with a $350 billion economy — is seeking a crucial instalment of $1.1 billion from the lender of the last resort to avoid default.

Tresmark mentioned that until and unless traders don’t feel confident about things getting better, especially the situation of reserves, the rupee would continue to fall, irrespective of its level.

“Traders we spoke to think the first and second level of resistance of 280 per dollar and 285 per dollar will be breached in the coming week unless the IMF comes on board. They also feel that 270-275 per dollar is the fair level post-IMF agreement, and any outruns will be temporary and will get corrected once there is some visibility of inflow,” the commentary read.

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Finance Minister Meets With World Leaders at World Economic Forum in Davos

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During his attendance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has met with officials of organisations and leaders of many nations.
Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor, Muhammad Younas, met with Mohammad Aurangzeb.
On the fringes of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2025 Opening Banquet, there was an informal meeting.
Additionally, the Finance Minister met with Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime Minister of Malaysia.
Both leaders discussed economic cooperation and bilateral ties.
Muhammad Aurangzeb also had a meeting with Dp World’s Rizwan Soomro and Yuvraj Narayan.
They talked about how to strengthen Pakistan’s logistics and infrastructure systems to support trade.
“The Pakistani government is committed to advancing joint projects and values partnerships in both business-to-business and business-to-government cooperation,” the finance minister added.

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China will establish a $250 million EV production facility in Pakistan.

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As Islamabad looks to Beijing to work with it to establish industrial zones for the production of electronic vehicles, the media said Wednesday that China’s ADM Group would invest $250 million to establish an electric vehicle manufacturing unit in Pakistan.

With an even more ambitious target of 90 percent by 2040, the Pakistani government established the National Electric Vehicles Policy (NEVP) in 2019 with the goal of having 30 percent of all passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks be electric by 2030.

By 2030, the policy aimed to achieve 50% of new sales for two- and three-wheelers and buses, and by 2040, 90%.

As part of the Special Investment Facilitation Council’s efforts to draw in foreign investment, Radio Pakistan reported that the Chinese company ADM Group had announced an investment of $250 million to establish an EV manufacturing plant in Pakistan.

“The switch to EVs is anticipated to save billions of dollars by reducing the cost of fuel imports.”

More than 3,000 electric vehicle charging stations will be installed throughout Pakistan, a South Asian nation, as part of ADM Group’s $350 million investment in the EV industry last year.

Pakistan announced earlier this month that, as part of its ongoing energy sector reform aimed at increasing demand, it would reduce the power rate for operators of electric vehicle charging stations by 45 percent.

Additionally, financial programs for e-bikes and the conversion of gasoline-powered two- and three-wheeled vehicles are planned by the government.

On January 15, the government approved a lower tariff of 39.70 rupees ($0.14) per unit, which will take effect in a month. The previous tariff was 71.10 rupees.

The government anticipates that investors in the industry will see an internal rate of return of over 20 percent.

There are currently over 30 million two- and three-wheeled cars in Pakistan, and they use more than $5 billion worth of petroleum each year, according to a report that Power Ministry adviser Ammar Habib Khan provided to the government and that was covered by Reuters.

The paper estimates that the ministry will save around $165 million in gasoline import expenses each year by converting 1 million two-wheelers to electric motorcycles in a first phase, at an estimated net cost of 40,000 rupees per bike.

In September, BYD Pakistan, a joint venture between China’s BYD and the Pakistani automaker Mega Motors, informed Reuters that, in accordance with international goals, up to 50% of all vehicles purchased in Pakistan by 2030 will be electrified in some way.

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The government has introduced a comprehensive strategy to enhance industrial investment.

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Authorities are poised to execute an ambitious investment promotion strategy through a collaborative initiative between the National Institute of Public Administration (NIPA) and the Pakistan Administrative Staff College, aiming for substantial enhancements in industrial investment and economic development.

The Special Investment Facilitation Center (SIFC) will be instrumental in this transformative drive by establishing “Business Facilitation Centers” aimed at optimizing investment processes and attracting both domestic and foreign capital.

Principal features of the comprehensive plan encompass:

  1. Forming collaborative working groups to augment domestic and international investment prospects
  2. Formulating a comprehensive strategy to eradicate obstacles to industrial development
  3. Formulating a novel model to tackle issues in the execution of industrial projects
  4. Striving to enhance Pakistan’s international business rating by 50 points
    Targeting $20 billion in foreign industrial investments within the next five years.

The approach prioritizes digital transformation to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the investment process. SIFC’s strategy emphasizes fostering a favorable atmosphere for investors by streamlining bureaucratic processes and offering strategic assistance.

National administration officers are conducting ongoing study to identify and mitigate potential investment barriers, while a specialized research group is formulating a comprehensive strategy to solve current hurdles in industrial growth.

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