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Bulls take charge on PSX after Pakistan clinches IMF deal

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KARACHI: Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Monday witnessed a bullish trend as the KSE-100 benchmark index crossed 2,000 points after the government reached a consensus with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a bailout package.

The index opened in the green zone and remained positive throughout the session before the trading was halted for an hour after the index hit its upper circuit limit of 5% at around 9:30am. The trading resumed at around 10:37pm.

When the market opened today, after Eid holidays break, it surged a record 2,231.1 points to 43,683.78 points, rising more than 5%, which forced the suspension.

As the trading resumed after an hour’s suspension, the benchmark index surged to 43,923.71 points — an increase of 5.96% or 2471.03 points — at around 11:20am.

Pakistan secured a badly-needed $3 billion short-term financial package — subject to approval by the IMF board in mid-July — on Friday, giving the South Asian economy a much-awaited respite as it teeters on the brink of default.

Speaking to Geo.tv, Pakistan-Kuwait Head of Research Samiullah Tariq said the market is performing due to the IMF deal and the reduction of the uncertainty on the balance of payments front.

The loan is a lifeline for Pakistan as it gives a nine-month roadmap to the nation, which is facing one of its worst economic and political crises on record.

Ecohing Tariq, Arif Habib Limited’s Head of Research Tahir Abbas also said that the rally is primarily due to the staff-level agreement with the IMF.

When asked whether the rally would be short-lived, Abbas said: “No, the momentum and sentiment are very positive given now the country has an economic roadmap ahead for the next nine months.”

The KSE-100 index had become the world’s cheapest equity benchmark, according to Bloomberg, as concerns regarding political turmoil and a risk of default had sent investors fleeing.

Islamabad also faces a payment of $23 billion in external debt obligations during the fiscal year, which started in July — and is almost six times more than the State Bank of Pakistan’s $4 billion forex reserves.

PM felicitates business community

In response to the surge, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif felicitated the business community and the nation.

He said as a result of a staff-level agreement with the IMF, the trust of investors and the business community was rapidly reviving.

In a statement issued by the PM Office, Shehbaz said the government’s continued struggle and prudent policies had started bearing fruits as signs of the country’s economic revival were rising.

“We are resuming the journey of economic development and decline in the inflation rate from the point where Quaid Muhammad Nawaz Sharif had left.” he said.

“Thanks to God, the country has been put on the path of development again, he said adding that after severe disappointments, a new sun of hope is rising again.”

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E&P Companies Will Invest $5 Billion in Pakistan’s Petroleum Industry

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Over the next three years, local and foreign companies involved in Pakistan’s oil and gas exploration and production sector have shown a strong desire to invest more than $5 billion in the nation’s energy sector.

Recent changes to the Petroleum Policy and the implementation of an exclusive tight gas policy, which provide better incentives and a more investor-friendly regulatory framework, are credited with the increase in investor confidence.

These strategic changes are expected to boost domestic energy production, open up new avenues for growth, and draw large amounts of both domestic and foreign investment.

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With inflation slowing, the SBP is anticipated to lower the policy rate for the eighth time in a row.

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Businesspeople anticipate another reduction in the policy rate when the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases the updated rate.

The interest rate for the upcoming two months will be announced by the central bank. It is still unclear if the rate will stay the same or be lowered to reflect stakeholder expectations.

According to experts, the policy rate will be lowered in order to further boost the nation’s economic sector.

Interest rates may be lowered for the seventh time in a row if the inflation rate declines significantly more than anticipated.

In its last six sessions, the MPC had cut the policy rate by 10 percent. In January 2025, it decreased the rate by one percent to 12pc.

12PC POLICY RATE

In January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced cut in key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 12 percent from 13pc in line with expectations of the business community.

The policy rate, which had been at 22 percent since June 2024, was slashed by 1,000 basis points to 12 percent.

The SBP governor said the decision was taken with careful consideration. “Although inflation is expected to decline next month (February), core inflation remains a pressing concern,” he stated.

Ahmed highlighted strong remittance inflows and robust export growth as key factors supporting the current account.

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Bulls in the stock market are still going strong.

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As the bullish trend persisted on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday, the KSE-100 index soared beyond the 115,000 level.

The PSX continued its upward trend from the weekend, and the KSE-100 index gained 600 points, reaching 115,048 points in early trading.

The index closed at 114,398 points on Friday, up 685 points.

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