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Chances of Pakistan securing IMF bailout are ‘dimming’: Moody’s

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  • Pakistan may not be able to complete the IMF programme.
  • “Pakistan could default,” says sovereign analyst with Moody’s.
  • Pakistan is making a final effort to revive its IMF programme.

As the coalition government struggles to meet external debt obligations, Moody’s Investors Service has warned that Pakistan is at an increased risk of failing to restart its $6.7 billion bailout programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), putting the country closer to a sovereign default.

“There are increasing risks that Pakistan may be unable to complete the IMF programme that expires at the end of June,” a sovereign analyst with the rating company in Singapore Grace Lim said.

Lim said: “Without an IMF programme, Pakistan could default, given its very weak reserves.”

Pakistan is making a final effort to revive its IMF programme, with a financing gap of $2 billion and exchange-rate policy among the biggest hurdles. While the government has pledged to meet billions of debt obligations, investors have remained sceptical about the nation’s dollar bonds trading in the distressed territory since last year.

Pakistan faces about $23 billion of external debt payments for the fiscal year 2023-24, which begins in July. The amount is roughly five times its reserves and most of it is taken from concessional multilateral and bilateral sources.

On Monday, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad denied officials were seeking debt restructuring talks as the country will pay $900 million of sovereign debt in June and expects $2.3 billion of obligations to be rolled over.

The country’s $1 billion bond due in April next year was little changed at about 55.6 cents on the dollar in Asian trading on Wednesday, after sliding almost three cents in the previous two days.

Rupee pressure

The rupee, which is trading near a record low against the dollar, may face further downward pressure, Lim said in an emailed response to questions.

The IMF’s comments on the exchange rate likely referred to the gap in the interbank and retail markets, she said.

The local currency has lost more than 20% this year after officials devalued the currency in January, making it one of the worst performers globally.

Pakistan’s financing options beyond June are highly uncertain, even as its external repayments will remain significant over the next few years, Lim said. Continuing engagement with the IMF would support additional financing from other multilateral and bilateral partners, which could reduce default risk, she said.

Separately, Pakistan is looking to purchase spot shipments of liquefied natural gas for the first time in roughly a year after a rapid drop in overseas prices. This suggests that Pakistan may see itself on a better financial footing, as suppliers were hesitant to sell fuel to the nation last year out of fear it may not be able to meet future payments.

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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