Dollar eyes big September jump, largely at euro’s expense

The dollar was near this year’s high against the euro and heading for its biggest monthly gain against it in 14 months on Wednesday, thanks to US growth and rising US interest rates relative to oil and debt worries swirling in Europe.

The euro dropped to an 11-month low of $1.1312 on Tuesday and was last quoted at $1.1339 in Asia on Wednesday. The euro is also challenging support at about 178 yen.
The dollar is up almost 2.5% against the euro in September and is on track for a third consecutive quarterly gain.

The Aussie dollar fell below 70 cents for the first time since early August as the stronger greenback dragged it down to a nine-week low of $0.6959 after inflation data came in a tad below predictions.”The US economy is running hot, Europe is losing the global ​AI race and energy supplies and French politics remain big concerns for the euro,” said Brent Donnelly, president of foreign exchange trading ​at analytics firm Spectra Markets.

European benchmark gas prices jumped earlier this month to their highest since 2022.

French markets are being squeezed by debt and political paralysis ahead of next year’s presidential election with the margin with German rates blowing out above 115 basis points to its largest since 2012.

Options prices have just shifted dramatically to suggest investors prefer buying protection from potential euro declines – though Donnelly argues the dollar probably needs strong US data to make advances from here.

The dollar also struck a 16-1/2-month high against the Swiss franc of 0.8358 francs on Tuesday. The franc has been hit in part because investors have been searching for low-yielding alternatives to yen to sell so they can get carry elsewhere.

The yen has fallen out of favor as a short against the dollar, with US-Japan currency buying in July and August, then warnings not to test their resolve and a rise in the pace of Japanese rate ​hikes.

The dollar has lost 2% against the ​yen so far this month and ⁠almost 3.8% for the quarter to date, hitting a nearly two-week low of 156.38 in Asia trade.

The Fed’s favored inflation gage, US core PCE, is coming later on Wednesday but the market is looking forward Friday’s US jobs data which if strong might bolster predictions that US interest rates are headed higher.

Some of those hopes got knocked overnight when prominent New York Fed President John Williams indicated there is “no need for urgency” in raising rates. The yield on the two-year Treasury declined by 3.5 basis points and the odds in Fed funds futures of a rate hike next month fell to 50% from 71%.

The New Zealand dollar on Tuesday hit its lowest since last November and was last at $0.5645.

Sterling dropped to a three-month low on Tuesday and last traded near that level at $1.3230. The yuan was headed for a seventh quarterly increase in a row against the dollar in its last session before China’s Oct. 1-7 holidays.