Dollar languishes as focus turns to CPI, Fed speakers

The dollar was down on Wednesday as traders anticipated further clues on timing of interest rate hikes to tackle stubborn inflation.

The dollar retreated from an 18-month high in the last session, as oil prices slipped and investors reviewed the AI-driven surge that has bolstered demand for U.S. assets. The euro clung to gains, with budget worries in France keeping regional bond yields high and markets on edge.

Attention now turns to the release of US consumer price index data and speeches by Federal Reserve governors that could provide clues on the interest rate outlook.The danger is that the core CPI surprises to the upside due to strong consumer demand and higher expenses, driving up market pricing of an October Fed hike and the USD’, Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.02% at 102.16 after down 0.35% on Tuesday. The euro was up 0.04% at $1.1203.

The dollar was last barely changed at 158.32 yen and sterling was last up 0.03 percent at $1.3256.

The dollar continued losses on Tuesday as New York Fed President John Williams said he still expects one more rate hike this year, but sees no need for any increases in 2027.

The US Labour Department is set to issue its ⁠CPI for September, which is predicted to have increased by 0.6% month-on-month after a 0.4% rise in August, while annual inflation is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.4%. Also set to be released is the Fed’s Beige Book.

Traders priced in a 77% likelihood the Fed will keep rates steady at its October 27-28 ​meeting, compared with 51% ​a month earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, while ⁠pricing in around 75 basis points of tightening to late 2027.

Bets on a Fed rate hike later this month were dumped after two members urged for gathering more evidence before judging whether additional tightening is needed, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation expectations remained “well anchored.”

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is slated to take part in a fireside chat in Virginia and Federal Reserve Vise Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is to take part in discussions in Bangkok.

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank are holding their annual meetings in Bangkok, with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde likely to appear multiple times on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar advanced 0.06% to $0.6984 against the greenback and New Zealand’s kiwi rose 0.09% to $0.5614.