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Dollar weakens after govt’s warning to reign in currency speculation

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  • Rupee gains against dollar for sixth consecutive session.
  • Rupee appreciates by Rs1.62 to reach 228.45 per dollar.
  • Expectation of Pakistan receiving flood relief also driving factor.

KARACHI: The government’s warning to reign in currency speculation again pushed down the US dollar’s slide against the Pakistani rupee for the sixth consecutive session on Friday.

In the interbank market, the local unit appreciated by Rs1.18 to reach 228.45 per dollar, according to the State Bank of Pakistan up from the previous session’s close of 229.63. 

Right after taking charge of the finance ministry earlier this week, Senator Ishaq Dar said that no one would be permitted to manipulate the foreign exchange market.

The new finance czar — who has strongly favored intervention in currency markets in three previous stints in the job — also claims that the value of the local unit is undervalued and he will seek to control inflation by lowering the interest rates.

The warning seems effective as market participants told The News that currency speculation appears to have decreased and the rupee is now gaining ground as a result of this.

Muhammad Saad Ali, a capital market expert, told Geo.tv that it was indeed Dar’s warning of reigning in speculation in the currency market that was driving the dollar’s free fall.

But the depreciation was not limited to the warning as Pakistan is also set to receive external financial assistance in terms of flood relief, which will in turn support the exchange rate, Ali said.

Although the currency has been witnessing appreciation against the greenback, Pakistan’s exports are still not at an ideal position and it is feared that in the coming days, the country will have to import commodities as a result of floods — shrinking the forex reserves.

The floods have also raised questions on whether Pakistan will be able to pay its debts on time, with the local currency not at a desirable stage against the dollar and the forex reserves diminishing over time.

In this regard, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari have sought climate justice to compensate for the destruction as the disaster was climate-induced — and Pakistan produces one of the lowest carbon emissions in the world.

In line with the dominant trend over the last several weeks, the country’s foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) once again declined by 4.07%.

On September 23, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $8,005.9 million, down $341 million compared with $8,346.4 on September 16, data released by SBP showed on Thursday.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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