Dollar wobbles, oil’s dash to $100 chills sentiment, Yen stands big

The Japanese yen was pinned near its best level since February on Wednesday, leaving the dollar on the ‌defensive as traders grappled with oil prices heading toward $100 a barrel amid an expanding war in the Middle East.

Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked several Saudi cities, drawing a U.S. partner further into a battle that has dragged on for more than six months, as U.S. forces struck multiple Iranian oil tankers and Iran threatened a U.S. station in Jordan.

Brent crude futures rose by more than 1.48% to $99.37 a barrel, weighing on global markets ahead of a U.S. inflation data on Friday that will set the stage for central bank meetings next week in the U.S. and Japan.

The currency market nudged the dollar down a touch in response, though some analysts said that was due to the yen’s swift rally over the past week.

The euro held constant at $1.1631 while the pound was last bought at $1.3546. ​The dollar index, measuring the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, was at 98.15, near its lowest level in nearly two weeks.

OCBC strategists said the current increase keeps Fed policy implications from higher energy prices in focus, especially after last week’s robust U.S. payrolls report reignited expectations of another rate hike. “Higher oil and rates should help limit USD fall for now but we anticipate a more dramatic move will await confirmation from the impending inflation data,” they said in a note.

The yen has been under focus after its 4% surge in September that has altered the math for the popular carry trade in which investors borrow in yen at a low cost and invest in other currencies and assets yielding better interest.

The yen was stronger at 153.65 per dollar, close to the seven-month peak of 152.89 struck on Tuesday. The surge has been broad-based with the Japanese currency strengthening against the euro and sterling as well as favorite carry-trade targets such as the Mexican peso and Turkish lira.

The increase has been fueled by expectations of quicker tightening by the Bank of Japan and the return of offshore cash by Japanese investors and pressure from Washington for a higher yen.

Traders broadly expect the BOJ to hike rates by 25 basis points at its September 17-18 meeting but the rise will rest on if Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers hawkish comments and the wild card will be the Federal Reserve.Aninda Mitra, head of Asia macro and investment strategy at BNY Investments, stated “Much will depend on how the market prices in the Fed’s path of interest rates too.We estimate the Yen’s “fair value” to be in the 140’s and a further move to that area should not be a total surprise following what has clearly been an overshoot to the side of excessive Yen weakness.”

The Australian dollar gained 0.12% to $0.7225, just below a four-month high set in the previous session, in Pacific trade. The New Zealand dollar was up 0.16% at $0.5862.