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Key takeaways from SBP’s off-cycle MPC meeting

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In an off-cycle review, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its key interest rate by 300 basis points on Thursday, exceeding investor expectations, as the cash-strapped country seeks to encourage the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release critical financing.

The key rate of the SBP now stands at 20%, its highest level since October 1996, with consumer price inflation now at its highest level for almost 50 years.

The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) next meeting is set to be held on April 4.

Arif Habib Limited compiled key takeaways from the meeting’s outcome, here they are:

– National CPI has swelled up to 31.5% YoY during February 2023, with core inflation at 17.1% in urban and 21.5% in the rural basket.

– The near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated post external and fiscal adjustments undertaken recently.

– The MPC has raised its CPI forecast for the year to 27-29% against the November 2022 forecast of 21-23%.

– Inflation in upcoming months can drift higher, albeit, at a gradual pace, as the impact of said adjustments unfolds.

– The committee noted that external account challenges persist despite the significant contraction in the current account deficit, recorded at $242 million in January 2023 (lowest since March 2021).

– Pressure on forex reserves and rupee-dollar parity also remain in place, regardless of a 67% decline in current account deficit in the Jul-Jan 2023 period given ongoing debt repayments, and lower financial inflows amid “rising global interest rates and domestic uncertainties.”

– The conclusion of the ninth review of the IMF’s EFF remains crucial to address external-sector vulnerabilities.

– Additionally, the MPC urged the implementation of energy conservation measures to alleviate pressure on the external account and to meet vital imports from other sectors.

– Fiscal consolidation remains critical for economic stability and recent measures like increase in GST and excise duties, restricted subsidies, and adjustment in energy prices should help contain the widening fiscal and primary deficits.

– This will complement the ongoing monetary tightening and help bring down inflation over the medium term.

– The committee also assessed the impact of further monetary tightening on the country’s financial stability and near-term growth.

– It was observed that “risks to financial stability remain contained, given that financial institutions are broadly well capitalized.”

– However, growth will be compromised as a trade-off.

– However, the MPC reiterated that the long-term costs of letting inflation become entrenched outweigh the immediate costs of bringing it down.

– Barring any future shocks, the committee believes that today’s decision has pushed the real interest rate into positive territory on a forward-looking basis.

– The medium-term CPI target remains unchanged at 5-7%, by end-FY25. 

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Finance Minister Meets With World Leaders at World Economic Forum in Davos

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During his attendance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has met with officials of organisations and leaders of many nations.
Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor, Muhammad Younas, met with Mohammad Aurangzeb.
On the fringes of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2025 Opening Banquet, there was an informal meeting.
Additionally, the Finance Minister met with Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime Minister of Malaysia.
Both leaders discussed economic cooperation and bilateral ties.
Muhammad Aurangzeb also had a meeting with Dp World’s Rizwan Soomro and Yuvraj Narayan.
They talked about how to strengthen Pakistan’s logistics and infrastructure systems to support trade.
“The Pakistani government is committed to advancing joint projects and values partnerships in both business-to-business and business-to-government cooperation,” the finance minister added.

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China will establish a $250 million EV production facility in Pakistan.

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As Islamabad looks to Beijing to work with it to establish industrial zones for the production of electronic vehicles, the media said Wednesday that China’s ADM Group would invest $250 million to establish an electric vehicle manufacturing unit in Pakistan.

With an even more ambitious target of 90 percent by 2040, the Pakistani government established the National Electric Vehicles Policy (NEVP) in 2019 with the goal of having 30 percent of all passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks be electric by 2030.

By 2030, the policy aimed to achieve 50% of new sales for two- and three-wheelers and buses, and by 2040, 90%.

As part of the Special Investment Facilitation Council’s efforts to draw in foreign investment, Radio Pakistan reported that the Chinese company ADM Group had announced an investment of $250 million to establish an EV manufacturing plant in Pakistan.

“The switch to EVs is anticipated to save billions of dollars by reducing the cost of fuel imports.”

More than 3,000 electric vehicle charging stations will be installed throughout Pakistan, a South Asian nation, as part of ADM Group’s $350 million investment in the EV industry last year.

Pakistan announced earlier this month that, as part of its ongoing energy sector reform aimed at increasing demand, it would reduce the power rate for operators of electric vehicle charging stations by 45 percent.

Additionally, financial programs for e-bikes and the conversion of gasoline-powered two- and three-wheeled vehicles are planned by the government.

On January 15, the government approved a lower tariff of 39.70 rupees ($0.14) per unit, which will take effect in a month. The previous tariff was 71.10 rupees.

The government anticipates that investors in the industry will see an internal rate of return of over 20 percent.

There are currently over 30 million two- and three-wheeled cars in Pakistan, and they use more than $5 billion worth of petroleum each year, according to a report that Power Ministry adviser Ammar Habib Khan provided to the government and that was covered by Reuters.

The paper estimates that the ministry will save around $165 million in gasoline import expenses each year by converting 1 million two-wheelers to electric motorcycles in a first phase, at an estimated net cost of 40,000 rupees per bike.

In September, BYD Pakistan, a joint venture between China’s BYD and the Pakistani automaker Mega Motors, informed Reuters that, in accordance with international goals, up to 50% of all vehicles purchased in Pakistan by 2030 will be electrified in some way.

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The government has introduced a comprehensive strategy to enhance industrial investment.

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Authorities are poised to execute an ambitious investment promotion strategy through a collaborative initiative between the National Institute of Public Administration (NIPA) and the Pakistan Administrative Staff College, aiming for substantial enhancements in industrial investment and economic development.

The Special Investment Facilitation Center (SIFC) will be instrumental in this transformative drive by establishing “Business Facilitation Centers” aimed at optimizing investment processes and attracting both domestic and foreign capital.

Principal features of the comprehensive plan encompass:

  1. Forming collaborative working groups to augment domestic and international investment prospects
  2. Formulating a comprehensive strategy to eradicate obstacles to industrial development
  3. Formulating a novel model to tackle issues in the execution of industrial projects
  4. Striving to enhance Pakistan’s international business rating by 50 points
    Targeting $20 billion in foreign industrial investments within the next five years.

The approach prioritizes digital transformation to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the investment process. SIFC’s strategy emphasizes fostering a favorable atmosphere for investors by streamlining bureaucratic processes and offering strategic assistance.

National administration officers are conducting ongoing study to identify and mitigate potential investment barriers, while a specialized research group is formulating a comprehensive strategy to solve current hurdles in industrial growth.

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