SBP to issue advance calendar of MPC meetings for first half of 2023.
Small section of market participants did not rule out a hike or reduction.
Central bank increased rate by 800 basis points in 11 months.
KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to announce its key policy rate for the next six weeks today and a majority of pundits have developed a consensus that the central bank will leave the rate unchanged at 15% in order to wait for the stabilisation of the economy.
However, a small section of market participants did not rule out a hike of 50-100 basis points or a reduction of 25-50 basis points.
More importantly, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, who is following his old recipe of running a controlled economy, will like to see an easy monetary policy. The policy rate is a tool for the central bank to create a balance between inflation and economic growth.
The central bank increased the rate by a cumulative 800 basis points in 11 months (September 2021 to July 2022) to 15%.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the rate in its previous monetary policy unveiled on October 10, 2022.
Most of the pundits aren’t expecting any rate increase because the Ministry of Finance has not indicated anything in the recent T-bill auctions.
The OMO injection is growing and it’s around Rs6 trillion. And SBP has issued recent OMOs at prevailing rates. This implies that SBP might not be thinking of any increase in the rate. The secondary market yields imply the same.
In addition, another positive development since the last MPC meeting has been the decline in international prices of major commodities such as WTI, coal, brent, steel, wheat, and Arab Light. This bodes well for our external account position, hence providing much-needed relief to our trade numbers.
To recall, in the last monetary policy statement too, the MPC stated that the existing rate prudently reflected a balance between maintaining growth post floods and managing inflation.
Moreover, as mentioned in the last statement, SBP is closely monitoring the inflation trajectory. On the inflationary front, the headline inflation continues to remain in the double-digit since November 2021 mainly on the back of an uptick in food and energy prices.
In the month of October, headline inflation clocked in at 26.6% year-on-year. However, on a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 4.71% mainly due to fuel cost adjustment adjustments and food price hikes.
The central bank is also expected to issue the advance calendar of MPC meetings for the first half of the calendar year 2023 after today’s meeting.
Through the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), Pakistan’s trade connections with Saudi Arabia have grown significantly, with bilateral trade volume rising from $546 million to $700 million and exports to the Kingdom growing by 22%.
As bilateral economic cooperation continues to grow, Saudi investors have shown a strong interest in Pakistan’s construction, energy, agricultural, and information technology sectors. The objective for exporting IT services between the two countries has been raised from $50 million to $100 million.
Saudi Arabia has set up a help desk dedicated to making it easier for Pakistani IT companies to register in the Kingdom in order to expedite commercial procedures. The goal of this program is to speed up economic collaborations between the two countries and lower administrative barriers.
The well-known Saudi restaurant chain AlBaik has revealed plans to open locations in Pakistan, which is a big step for the food service industry and should lead to the creation of new job possibilities in the area.
Officials have noted that stronger business links between the two countries lead to greater economic stability, and the SIFC has played a crucial role in promoting these trade advancements. For bilateral trade and investment projects, the Council remains a crucial facilitator.
According to a trade official with knowledge of the developments, “the establishment of dedicated support mechanisms, such as the help desk for IT companies, demonstrates a commitment to long-term economic partnership,” The goal of these programs is to improve the conditions for commercial collaboration between the two nations.
The increasing amount of trade and the diversity of investment sectors show that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s economic ties are changing as both countries seek to deepen their business alliances in a number of industries.
After more than 50 years, the two governments will resume direct bilateral trade, with Bangladesh’s food ministry announcing Sunday that it will receive a supply of 25,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan next month.
After former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was overthrown last August, relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan have begun to improve after decades of tense relations.
Since then, there have been increased bilateral interactions between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the interim government’s senior adviser, has met twice with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
According to the food ministry, Dhaka completed an agreement earlier this month to import grains from Pakistan.
“On March 3, the first shipment of 25,000 tonnes will reach Bangladesh,” Zia Uddin Ahmed, a ministry assistant secretary, told Arab News.
“This is the first time that Bangladesh has started importing rice from Pakistan at the government-to-government level since 1971.”
Following direct maritime contact between the two South Asian countries in November—a Pakistani cargo ship stopped in Bangladesh for the first time since 1971 with imports and exports arranged by private companies—their trade relations grew.
Resuming trade with Pakistan is a significant step for Bangladesh, according to Amena Mohsin, a lecturer at North South University and a specialist in international relations.
“We want to see progress in our bilateral relationship with Pakistan. Most significantly, we are currently going through a low point dispute with India, even though we constantly diversify our partnerships.
This most recent move to purchase rice from Pakistan is really significant in this context,” she told Arab News.
As of February 14, Pakistan’s total liquid foreign reserves were $15,947.9 million, with the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) holdings being $11,201.5 million.
Official figures for the week ending February 14, 2025, show that the central bank’s liquid foreign exchange reserves rose by $35 million to $11,201.5 million.
Commercial banks maintained net foreign reserves of $4,746.4 million during the period under review, according to the breakdown of foreign reserves.
The nation’s total liquid foreign reserves as of the week ending February 07, 2025, were $15,862.6 million.
Of these, the central bank held $11,166.6 million in foreign reserves, while commercial banks kept $4,696 million in net reserves.