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Moody’s warns of ‘highly uncertain’ external funding prospects for Pakistan

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1 year ago

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  • Agency says FY24 budget lacks revenue-raising measures.
  • Pakistan’s future of new programme to become clear after elections.
  • “Negotiations for future deal will also take some time,” it says.

KARACHI: Moody’s Investors Service has warned that Pakistan’s ability to secure loans from bilateral and multilateral partners will be severely constrained until a new programme is negotiated with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The credit company, in an issuer comment report, said: “Whether Pakistan will join another IMF programme may only become clear after elections, which are due by October 2023. Negotiations for any future IMF programme would also take some time, even if they succeed.”

It further warned that Pakistan is unlikely to access market financing at affordable costs, either from Eurobonds or commercial banks, in the foreseeable future. 

In fiscal 2023, the government issued no Eurobonds and raised only Rs521 billion ($2.8 billion) from commercial banks, far short of the Rs1.4 trillion target set in the fiscal year 2022-23 budget.

The country’s external debt repayment will remain high for the next few years, with about $25 billion of repayments (principal and interest) due in fiscal 2024, while foreign exchange reserves are very low at $3.9 billion as of June 2.

“Pakistan’s external funding prospects for fiscal 2024 and later are highly uncertain,” Moody’s said. “It is not guaranteed that Pakistan will be able to secure $2.4 billion from the IMF as budgeted.”

The IMF has been in talks with Pakistan on the ninth tranche of a $6.5 billion bailout package since last year. The programme will expire at the end of June.

Moody’s said the government is considering rescheduling bilateral debts, but it does not plan to approach the Paris Club or multilateral partners to reschedule their debt.

“Under our definition, a suspension of debt service obligations only to official creditors is unlikely to have direct rating implications,” the rating agency said. “Indeed, such relief would increase the government’s available fiscal resources for essential health, social and infrastructure spending.”

Moody’s said Pakistan’s newly announced budget for the fiscal year 2023-24 lacks major revenue-raising or spending-containment measures to alleviate intense government liquidity pressures.

The rating agency said it considers the deficit estimates and growth projections to be optimistic, given the stresses the economy is facing, in particular government liquidity and external vulnerability pressures, exacerbated by the severe floods of August 2022 that will continue to weigh on economic activity over fiscal 2024. 

“At the same time, the budget does not contain significant revenue-raising or spending-containment measures,” Moody’s said.

“The budget provides a wide range of relief measures for households and businesses, including a reduction in fuel and electricity prices, an increase in the minimum wage, and a one-time cash transfer to low-income households.”

A large share of the increase in expenditure goes towards salaries and pensions for government employees. Total employee-related expenses are budgeted at Rs1.2 trillion, compared with the estimated spending of Rs960 billion in fiscal 2023.

In addition, the government earmarked Rs2.8 trillion for grants and subsidies in fiscal 2024, compared with an estimated Rs2 trillion in fiscal 2023.

However, Pakistan’s low revenue/GDP ratio is a major constraint on the government’s debt affordability and debt burden.

The budget targets fiscal 2024 tax revenue at Rs9.2 trillion, up 28% from an estimated Rs7.2 trillion in fiscal 2023.

“Given a lack of new significant revenue-raising measures, the government’s revenue projections rely mainly on the assumption that nominal GDP growth will be high and support an increase in revenue. In the current context, we see significant downside risks to that assumption.”

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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