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Oil industry foresees petrol and diesel shortage, warns OGRA

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  • Oil Companies Advisory Council informed OGRA about looming shortage in a letter.
  • Under product review, deficit of 210,000 MT of HSD and 147,000 MT of petrol was worked out.
  • Says petrol import corresponding to anticipated sales volume and stock cover has not been booked.

KARACHI: The oil industry has communicated to the government about an expected petrol and high speed diesel (HSD) shortage in the coming days due to inadequate imports and limited local availability, reported The News.

The Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC), a representative body of the oil sector, has informed the regulator Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) about the shortage in a letter.

The OCAC said that motor spirit/petrol and HSD imports were finalised after extensive deliberation and allowed to oil marketing companies (OMCs) in line with their demand in product availability review of products for the month of November 2022.

Under product review, deficit of 210,000 MT of HSD and 147,000 MT of petrol was worked out. It was highlighted in the meeting that HSD imports in November might be challenging owing to limited availability in the international market and very high premiums; hence so far, only PSO has booked shipments of 220,000 MT & 10,000 MT by Flow Petroleum.

However, it is alarming to note that petrol import corresponding to the anticipated sales volume and stock cover has also not been booked. The import plan should have been finalised by the importers but, so far, there is a deficit in the import plan, the OCAC letter said.

This critical issue was also highlighted in the meeting held on November 1 with the industry representatives; however, no firm commitments have been received from the importing OMCs in writing, it said.

A few OMCs sales for October have been higher than they expected and have been continuously carrying low stocks since October 2022.

The OMCs, which were supposed to bring imports for use in October, received their shipments in the last week of October; hence, product was not available for use during the month it was intended for. Similarly, the OMCs which were allowed imports in the previous month for use next month have already consumed the parcels in advance, the letter noted.

“Keeping in view the ongoing sales trend and the number of days cover currently being maintained by the OMCs, we foresee product availability challenges in various pockets of the country in days to come, due to inadequate imports and limited local avails,” the OCAC said, requesting the regulator to issue necessary directives to the importing OMCs for strict adherence to import plans to avoid a shortage.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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