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Pakistan-IMF deal: PKR expected to remain steady next week

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  • Positive impact of Pakistan-IMF deal on rupee.
  • Dealers expect balanced inflow, outflow of dollars.
  • IMF board to meet on July 12 for loan approval.

KARACHI: The rupee is expected to remain steady next week as the currency market hopes for the approval of Pakistan’s bailout package by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Executive Board on July 12.

According to a report published in The News, dealers said on Saturday that dollar inflows and outflows are likely to be balanced.

In the interbank market, the local unit rose by 2.8% or Rs8 week-on-week.

“Over the course of the next week, the rupee is probably not going change much. The quantity of foreign currency that banks generate (via exports and remittances) must equal the amount of import payments before releasing them,” said an analyst.

“By using this strategy, the current account deficit is kept under check, and unrestricted imports are avoided,” the expert noted, adding that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) seemed to monitor the current account actively.

Once inflows from the IMF and friendly nations are received, it is feasible that imports may be permitted more freely.

However, according to the analyst, because payments are increasingly being accepted, businesses are not encountering substantial import delays.

Currency experts hope that the IMF will most likely approve the standby arrangement during its Executive Board meeting on July 12 and that $1.1 billion will be credited to the SBP account by July 18.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan, the key opposition figure in Pakistan and a former prime minister, met the IMF team on Friday at his residence in Zaman Park, Lahore.

Khan voiced his support for the bailout deal with the global lender but sought guarantees for timely elections in the country.

The IMF stated that it was seeking the backing of Pakistan’s political parties, including Khan’s, for the new nine-month $3 billion stand-by arrangement and the policies linked with the programme in the run-up to the country’s autumn elections.

“The market does not expect any drastic movement in USD-PKR parity,” said Tresmark — a financial portal for treasury markets — in a note.

“Our last week’s projections of 275-280 till IMF approval and 282-287 post-IMF approval still hold,” it added.

The views were based on potentially significant inflows catalysed by the IMF agreement, the rupee being undervalued on a REER basis, elevated interest rates, continued management of imports, increased forex reserves on account of favourable current account deficit, and SBP’s key objective to build reserves rapidly.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank increased by $393 million to $4.462 billion in the week ending June 30.

The country’s dollar bonds saw a correction during the outgoing week. Following the positive response to the Pakistan-IMF agreement, the country experienced a significant upswing in its international bond prices, reflecting heightened investor confidence, according to JS Global.

“However, there has been a correction in bond prices and yields this week,” it said. “Bond prices are showing on average a 7% day-on-day decline as per current prices.”

On a cumulative basis, the increase in international bond prices averaged around 26% since the recent low of June 23, 2023, JS Global stated.

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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