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Rupee breaks losing streak against dollar, makes minor gains

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KARACHI: Pakistan’s rupee Tuesday turned the losing tide on the dollar, bouncing off eight-session lows, dealers said.

The local currency gained Re0.24 or 0.11% against the greenback in the inter-bank market to close at 223.42. That compared to Monday’s close of Rs223.66

The country’s currency has shed Rs2 or 0.9% versus US currency during the last eight trading sessions. 

Analysts said that even the improvement in the country’s current account balance failed to cheer up the rupee. The current account deficit fell 68% to $567 million in October.

The market sentiment is negatively impacted by Pakistan’s growing risk of default on its obligations to repay foreign debt, the delay in IMF-Pakistan negotiations, and the absence of a timeframe regarding incoming financing from friendly countries, according to dealers.

The current account gap has reduced, but exports and remittances have taken a serious hit.

Inflows have dried down, and traders are keenly looking out for World Bank to send in aid money, so crucial at this time.

The general consensus in the money market remains downbeat.

However, positive news from the political and inflows front was seen setting the rupee’s direction down the line.

Dollar shortage

Zafar Paracha, Chairman Exchange Association of Pakistan (ECAP), sees the rupee languishing in the near future owing to multiple reasons.

“First off, there’s a shortage of dollars in the country. We have more buyers than sellers in the market,” Paracha said highlighting the dollar demand-supply issues.

He said the country was in dire need of big inflows and “as long as the international and bilateral lenders do not deliver on their commitments, the rupee is unlikely to recover. 

“One of the reasons that have stalled these inflows was the ongoing political uncertainty in the country.” he said adding, “While IMF is also not giving us any leverage and is tightening its conditions, adding to the economic woes”.

Another reason was that remittances from overseas workers were continuously falling, which was an upshot of the global recession. 

“This phenomenon has weighed on the savings of expats, resulting in lower amounts of foreign currency being sent home,” the ECAP official added.

Paracha also raised alarms over the thin foreign exchange stash with the central bank, fearing more fiscal pressure as deadlines for the repayments of maturing external debt and interest expenses were approaching fast.

The money dealers’ association leader pointed out that the grey market was also biting into the legal one.

“People are diverting to the illegal channels as they are offering better rates, which also need to be addressed,” Paracha said.

Dollar stable

The dollar steadied on Tuesday after rallying the previous day as investors flocked to the safe haven currency on worries over China’s COVID flare-ups, while bitcoin came under pressure after fears of fresh contagion from the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. 

The euro was up 0.14% to $1.0258 after an 0.8%loss on Monday, the sterling rose 0.19% to $1.1838, partially reversing its 0.6% fall, and the dollar was at 141.86 yen down 0.18% after a 1.2% gain.

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The amount of trade between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan hits $700 million.

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Through the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), Pakistan’s trade connections with Saudi Arabia have grown significantly, with bilateral trade volume rising from $546 million to $700 million and exports to the Kingdom growing by 22%.

As bilateral economic cooperation continues to grow, Saudi investors have shown a strong interest in Pakistan’s construction, energy, agricultural, and information technology sectors. The objective for exporting IT services between the two countries has been raised from $50 million to $100 million.

Saudi Arabia has set up a help desk dedicated to making it easier for Pakistani IT companies to register in the Kingdom in order to expedite commercial procedures. The goal of this program is to speed up economic collaborations between the two countries and lower administrative barriers.

The well-known Saudi restaurant chain AlBaik has revealed plans to open locations in Pakistan, which is a big step for the food service industry and should lead to the creation of new job possibilities in the area.

Officials have noted that stronger business links between the two countries lead to greater economic stability, and the SIFC has played a crucial role in promoting these trade advancements. For bilateral trade and investment projects, the Council remains a crucial facilitator.

According to a trade official with knowledge of the developments, “the establishment of dedicated support mechanisms, such as the help desk for IT companies, demonstrates a commitment to long-term economic partnership,” The goal of these programs is to improve the conditions for commercial collaboration between the two nations.

The increasing amount of trade and the diversity of investment sectors show that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s economic ties are changing as both countries seek to deepen their business alliances in a number of industries.

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After more than 50 years, Bangladesh and Pakistan resume direct trade.

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After more than 50 years, the two governments will resume direct bilateral trade, with Bangladesh’s food ministry announcing Sunday that it will receive a supply of 25,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan next month.

After former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was overthrown last August, relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan have begun to improve after decades of tense relations.

Since then, there have been increased bilateral interactions between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the interim government’s senior adviser, has met twice with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

According to the food ministry, Dhaka completed an agreement earlier this month to import grains from Pakistan.

“On March 3, the first shipment of 25,000 tonnes will reach Bangladesh,” Zia Uddin Ahmed, a ministry assistant secretary, told Arab News.

“This is the first time that Bangladesh has started importing rice from Pakistan at the government-to-government level since 1971.”

Following direct maritime contact between the two South Asian countries in November—a Pakistani cargo ship stopped in Bangladesh for the first time since 1971 with imports and exports arranged by private companies—their trade relations grew.

Resuming trade with Pakistan is a significant step for Bangladesh, according to Amena Mohsin, a lecturer at North South University and a specialist in international relations.

“We want to see progress in our bilateral relationship with Pakistan. Most significantly, we are currently going through a low point dispute with India, even though we constantly diversify our partnerships.

This most recent move to purchase rice from Pakistan is really significant in this context,” she told Arab News.

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The total amount of Pakistan’s liquid foreign reserves is $15.95 billion.

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As of February 14, Pakistan’s total liquid foreign reserves were $15,947.9 million, with the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) holdings being $11,201.5 million.

Official figures for the week ending February 14, 2025, show that the central bank’s liquid foreign exchange reserves rose by $35 million to $11,201.5 million.

Commercial banks maintained net foreign reserves of $4,746.4 million during the period under review, according to the breakdown of foreign reserves.

The nation’s total liquid foreign reserves as of the week ending February 07, 2025, were $15,862.6 million.

Of these, the central bank held $11,166.6 million in foreign reserves, while commercial banks kept $4,696 million in net reserves.

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