Analysts cite return of Dar as reason behind increase.
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee continued Wednesday to gain ground for the fourth consecutive session as the dollar’s slide persisted after federal minister Senator Ishaq Dar took charge of the finance ministry.
In the interbank market, the rupee gained 1.79 to close at 232.12 per dollar, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) after it increased its value by 7.53 in the ongoing week.
Currency dealers and analysts have cited that the return of Dar — a close aide of PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif — to Pakistan to take charge as the finance minister has helped improve sentiment and the fall in international commodity prices boosted the rupee’s rise.
The current account deficit — fortunately — will likely remain in check on account of declining international commodity prices and administrative measures taken by the government.
Inflation, too, has most likely peaked and is expected to come down over the coming months, The News reported.
Talking to Geo.tv, economist and former adviser to the federal ministry of finance Dr Khaqan Hassan Najeeb said the first aspect is a change in market sentiment driven by a leadership change at the finance ministry.
“The new team is regarded to be more conscious of rupee movement and thus leaning to more orderly movement,” the former adviser said.
Secondly, he noted that some fundamentals have improved, especially a decline in oil prices as well as other key commodity prices, which may help reduce the quantum of imports.
“Thirdly, the confirmation by multilateral lenders to extend flood support is a market supporting development,” Dr Najeeb said.
Lastly, a bit farfetched but the possibility of reconsideration and leniency in some conditions by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to flood impact is driving a positive sentiment toward the rupee, Najeeb added.
Alfalah’s head of research Fahad Irfan said Dar would not have the kind of free hand he had in his previous term.
“The IMF, in general, has been much stricter in terms of policy implementation. Most importantly, Pakistan now has a free exchange rate regime, even otherwise, the country has record low forex reserves with no room to burn them to control the exchange rate,” he said.
“However, administrative curbs and stronger checks on manipulation and the smuggling of dollars out of Pakistan are still possible,” Irfan added.
He said the rupee was expected to regain some lost ground. However, with the fear of Dar, the pace of appreciation has accelerated.
He noted that changes in key positions, at times of catastrophic floods and an extremely fragile economic environment, might help Dar regain some lost popularity; however, this might slow down policymaking.
Dar maintained the rupee at a parity of 100 per dollar for his entire term (2013-2017) and kept the policy rate at its historic low of 5.75% from May 2016 to December 2017.
This lethal combo was the main reason why Pakistan posted a historic high current account deficit of $19.2 billion or 6.3% of the gross domestic product in FY2018 and eroded foreign exchange reserves to just 2 months of import cover, according to Irfan.
Dar seeks ‘time’ to stabilise Pakistan’s economy
Senator Dar has defended former finance minister Miftah Ismail’s policies as he sought time to stabilise Pakistan’s economy.
In a press conference outside an accountability court, Dar said Miftah is part of the government’s team and his efforts helped save the country from a looming default threat.
“Miftah put in all his efforts and through them, he saved Pakistan from default. The mess that was made in the last three to four years could not be cleared in four months,” he said.
Miftah had to take unpopular decisions, including raising power tariffs and rates of petroleum products, to restart the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
The belt-tightening measures invited criticism from the coalition rulers and Miftah received flak from his party as well.
In a separate conversation with journalists upon his arrival Dar said that he needed time to fix Pakistan’s economy.
Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.
Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.
The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.
A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.
In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.
He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.
Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.
Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.
Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.
The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.
In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.
Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.
A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.
Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.
With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.
The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.
Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.
It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.
The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.
According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.
A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills. With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls. One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future. This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.